CLOs

With yields on B rated CLO bonds now as high as 18%, Elena Rinaldi looks at various scenarios for corporate default rates and questions why investors are overshooting even the most pessimistic scenarios.

European ABS and CLOs had a turbulent Q2 as broader macro headwinds sparked heavy selling, but investors have made good use of direct trading to pick up bonds at prices not seen since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Aza Teeuwen explains how market moves have impacted BB CLOs and looks at historic trends analysing their behaviour during crisis scenarios.

After two COVID-hit years last week the European ABS market decamped once again to Barcelona for the 26th annual AFME & IMN Global ABS conference.

In fast-moving markets there is no perfect time to provide an update on valuations.

We can debate whether the European Central Bank is behind the curve or not, but Christine Lagarde says rates will be in non-negative territory by September.

As inflation continues to outstay its welcome in the global economy, we have previously discussed the impact of rising input costs on corporates and how crucial pricing power can be in such a challenging environment.

As 2021 wore on we became increasingly concerned that the disconnect between asset prices, economic fundamentals and monetary policy was becoming more acute.

The first month of 2022 has passed, and it’s been quite a roller coaster for broader equity and credit markets, with volatility climbing to its highest level since January 2021.

If 2021 was a bad year for global bond returns, it follows there were few natural shelters to be found within fixed income from the brunt of inflation and rates-driven volatility; the Barclays Global Aggregate Index (a widely used broad measure of bond performance) returned -4.7% in USD terms, while European investment grade credit returned -1.1% despite credit spreads tightening over the course of the year.

The first two trading weeks of the year are coming to an end and unlike previous years they have been packed with activity.

Markets have clearly experienced some periods of volatility this year, and while European CLOs haven’t been immune to this, both fundamentals and prices have been remarkably stable.