CLOs

If 2021 was a bad year for global bond returns, it follows there were few natural shelters to be found within fixed income from the brunt of inflation and rates-driven volatility; the Barclays Global Aggregate Index (a widely used broad measure of bond performance) returned -4.7% in USD terms, while European investment grade credit returned -1.1% despite credit spreads tightening over the course of the year.

The first two trading weeks of the year are coming to an end and unlike previous years they have been packed with activity.

Markets have clearly experienced some periods of volatility this year, and while European CLOs haven’t been immune to this, both fundamentals and prices have been remarkably stable.

With floating rate assets likely to be high on investors’ shopping lists for 2022, Doug Charleston looks at the floating rate options across fixed income and highlights the highest yielding opportunities.

What we are currently experiencing is a disconnect between monetary policy, the economy and the markets, a disconnect that in our view will struggle to survive much longer.

After a mixed start to Q4 for risk assets, Elena Rinaldi examines how European ABS and CLO assets have fared so far in Q4 and the factors currently affecting both markets.

Let’s not forget that the BoE dropped rates from 0.75% right down to 0.1% at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic back in March 2020, having only managed to put through two hikes in 2017 and 2018. It has changed course sharply before.

BWIC – or bids wanted in competition – lists, are a unique characteristic of the ABS and CLO markets, where they are widely used in secondary trading when investors are looking to sell bonds.

Based on these metrics, the picture seems rosy, and credit performance looks set to continue through the second half of the year should the main drivers of the recovery remain intact.

2021 looks set to become a post-financial crisis record year for European CLO issuance and refinancings, but amid the rush of activity we are seeing a concerning trend for weaker documentation in refinanced deals that in our view investors need to fight against.

I think it’s likely we’ll see new cycle tights for the European CLO sector this year, so in addition to healthy income we believe there is plenty of room for capital appreciation as prices are being pushed higher in the secondary market.

Our analysis indicates European ABS investors can carry forward little concern about nasty default surprises, and this is likely to be important when considering total returns for 2021.