The TwentyFour Blog

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis point (bp) rate hike. becoming the first major central bank in developed markets to have raised rates in response to the Iran conflict.

The Italian banking sector has kicked off the week with news of a potentially blockbuster merger, showing the theme of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in European banking is very much alive.

In 2026, we are at a crucial juncture for European CLO managers. The 2021 and 2022 vintages are reaching the end of their reinvestment period. Understanding why this is significant is vital to grasping the current state of the CLO markets.

The conflict in Iran has driven a sharp repricing at the front-end of rates markets, pushing central bank expectations from cuts to hikes in a matter of weeks. While the reaction is understandable given the inflationary impact, the scale of the move has left front-end yields on a more attractive footing.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently published the UK’s net migration figures for the second half of 2025. The data shows that the downward trend from the extreme post-Covid levels continues.

Persistent macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and AI-driven disruption have all shaped the start of 2026. It has also marked the return of the leveraged buyout (LBO).

European bank results for the first quarter of 2026 have revealed a strong start to the year, allaying some of the concern that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East might impact bank fundamentals to some extent.

Credit markets have been remarkably resilient in the face of significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in recent weeks.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.