The TwentyFour Blog

Fundamentally the outlook for 2022 appears less supportive than it was 12 months ago.

What we are currently experiencing is a disconnect between monetary policy, the economy and the markets, a disconnect that in our view will struggle to survive much longer.

With rising government bond yield curves one of the biggest concerns for fixed income fund managers going into 2022, Eoin Walsh points to interest rate swaps as one option for reducing the rates risk of a portfolio without impacting its credit exposure.

This week the team at TwentyFour have been busy compiling our 2022 fixed income outlook, which will be published next week. There is no doubt we are confronted with a challenging set of circumstances, which will provide investors – not just in fixed income – with headwinds in the year ahead, and in particular we think during the first half.

Before the pandemic struck in February 2020, there were 159 million employed Americans; by the end of April that year, 26 million jobs disappeared. Since then, politicians and central bankers have focused on recovering all jobs lost to the pandemic fallout and returning to pre-COVID levels.

Marko Feiertag take a closer look at Santander’s latest consumer ABS transaction, which attracted strong demand despite being increased to a bumper €1.5bn in size.

So that’s the banks, rates, swaps and currency traders that all apparently got the wrong end of the stick. Explaining how you might arrive at a future monetary policy decision is a challenging and fine balancing act, but as Governor of the Bank of England that is of course one your jobs.

With forecasts remaining low and credit fundamentals as supportive as they are, the outlook for US high yield continues to look compelling.

Speculation on the timing of the Bank of England’s first post-pandemic rate hike has been rife. But whether the BoE hikes rates later this week, next month or even waits until after year-end, it is worth thinking about what it will mean for the general public, a step away from the financial markets.