The TwentyFour Blog

Prediction markets suggest the Democrats are capable of gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives at the US midterm elections on November 3, with Polymarket putting the chance of a “sweep” at 64% as of Friday morning.

The topic of banking “deregulation” has come back to the fore this year, mainly fuelled by initiatives from the US authorities.

The importance of “term premium” in discussions about yield curves has been on the rise this year.

The latest FOMC meeting delivered more than a rate hike. Chair Warsh's clear hawkish message that inflation has been too high for too long helped restore confidence in the Fed's commitment to tackling inflation, with important implications for bond markets and rate expectations.

The Rendez-Vous de Septembre (RVS) reinsurance conference was held last week in Monte Carlo. This annual event began in 1957 and is the largest gathering in the reinsurance sector, bringing together participants across the insurance and reinsurance market for bilateral discussions ahead of annual renewals (with a major share of contracts renewing on January 1).

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a well telegraphed 25bp rate hike and updated its projections for growth and inflation.

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to define a clear “strike zone” for forward guidance has put him increasingly at odds with Governor Christopher Waller.

Hyperscaler bond issuance has surged in 2026, with volumes already far exceeding previous years. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX have issued over $180bn of USD-denominated bonds so far this year.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech went a long way, in our view, towards restoring some much-needed credibility to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) reaction function and its commitment to the dual mandate.