Just how healthy is the consumer?
Consumers are being hit from seemingly all angles at the moment. Higher interest rates are coming, higher inflation is already hitting their pockets hard and economic growth is expected to slow.
Insights Topic
Macroeconomics
CLOs have the fundamentals to absorb recession
As inflation continues to outstay its welcome in the global economy, we have previously discussed the impact of rising input costs on corporates and how crucial pricing power can be in such a challenging environment.
Return of bond-equity correlations could offer respite for investors
The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.
Why inflation risks are still tilted to the upside
With inflation running at 40-year highs in many parts of the world, it is easy to get carried away with making comparisons to the dark economic days of the early 1980s.
Is there value in floating rate bonds?
Last week both the Fed and the BoE hiked rates by 0.25%, and judging by the Fed's dot plots and comments from the Bank of England (BoE), more hikes will likely follow in the coming months.
Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete
Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.
BoE sounds caution on the real economy
The hawkishness of the Fed on Wednesday paved the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to follow suit.
Wave of inflation means companies will sink or swim on pricing power
Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.
FOMC: Central bankers face conundrum on inflation and growth
The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Investors face conundrum on government bond allocations
We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.
Steady Fed makes short end look attractive
Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to a volatile past week for investors, but uncertainty regarding central bank action continues to dominate the bond markets, with one investment bank now predicting nine straight hikes from the Fed beginning at its March meeting.
What are government bonds saying?
Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.