24 Sep 2021 TwentyFour Blog Stagflation – Probable or Panic? Our base case is for a continuation of quite high growth and a modest inflation overshoot. For bond investors, positioning for stagflation could be a dangerous trade if that base case bears out Read more
2 Sep 2021 TwentyFour Blog How Much Supply is There to Come? This supply surge can be very welcome for those investors with cash to put to work, though it is also eyed with caution. Read more
8 Jun 2021 TwentyFour Blog Credit Fundamentals Set to Improve Further Frustratingly for fixed income investors looking to buy bonds, the data seem to fully justify the high valuations we see in so many parts of our market at the moment; it really would not make sense to be able to buy bonds cheaply when conditions are so good. Read more
9 Dec 2020 TwentyFour Blog We See Value in Lagging Corporate Hybrid Spreads As we are nearing the end of 2020 and assessing pockets of potential value going into 2021, we have to question the strong rally we have just experienced and assess the attractiveness of the hybrid spread multiple and whether or not we can expect further compression. Read more
10 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog The Bond Market Recovery has Outpaced Equities The clear opportunity within IG credit from our perspective, without having to take excessive risk, is to buy legacy Bank and Insurance IG debt. Read more
5 Sep 2019 TwentyFour Blog Perfect Conditions For Heavy Bond Issuance September new issuance has opened with a bang as we expected. Volumes are high and the issuer types are diverse, with a slant towards more frequent borrowers who tend to have their ducks permanently lined up in order to jump on favourable conditions. We expect this trend to continue throughout September as bankers push borrowers to take advantage of what could be one of the best opportunities they might see this cycle. Read more
25 Jun 2019 Market Update Five things to consider when investing in IG credit Fixed income investors globally face a daunting environment in 2019, with a deteriorating credit cycle, heightened political volatility and increased uncertainty around global monetary tightening. Read more
7 Mar 2019 White Paper BBBs and ‘Fallen Angels’: Hellish Risks or Heavenly Returns? For fixed income investors, it has been impossible to ignore the proliferation of press coverage about the growth of the triple-B rated corporate bond market, and a coming wave of downgrades for companies rated BBB to high yield, with these ‘fallen angels’ exposing investors to mark-to-market losses at best, and defaults at worst. Read more
18 Oct 2018 TwentyFour Blog Tesco Bonds: Time to Hit the Checkout? In January 2015, after years of market share erosion and leverage increases, Tesco bonds were downgraded to junk status by Moody’s and S&P, forcing all of Tesco’s debt stack out of IG corporate bond indices in the process. Read more
3 Oct 2018 TwentyFour Blog The Comeback of Corporate Hybrids With September now behind us, colder mornings and darker nights approaching it seems an opportune time to take stock of how the primary market reopened this year after its traditional summer lull. Read more
20 Aug 2018 Market Update Protecting a bond portfolio from duration and volatility Fixed income investors globally face a huge challenge defending returns against rising rates and resurgent volatility. The Federal Reserve’s famous ‘dot plots’ are projecting two more quarter-point rate hikes in 2018 and a further four in 2019, which if carried out would take the upper bound of the Fed Funds rate to 3.5%. Other central banks may be lagging on the path to policy normalisation, but the direction is set and in all likelihood the low yields of this cycle are now behind us. Read more
16 Aug 2018 TwentyFour Blog Opportunity Amid The Outflows Typically in August, credit liquidity becomes a bit like my lawn this summer: patchy. Over the past few weeks there have been a few stories of large fund groups seeing significant outflows from the asset class, and even of liquidations, which begs the question: what are they selling? Read more