Will high yields stay high?
For all of these observations, there is one common observation – yields did not stay at these high levels for very long.
Insights Topic
Government Bonds
Return of bond-equity correlations could offer respite for investors
The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.
Peak hawkishness for rates, but can the consumer handle it?
Since the end of last year, central bank officials have been falling over themselves to increase their hawkishness around rates, particularly in the US. Even the ECB Governing Council members have been vocal of late.
Why inflation risks are still tilted to the upside
With inflation running at 40-year highs in many parts of the world, it is easy to get carried away with making comparisons to the dark economic days of the early 1980s.
Is a soft landing possible?
As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.
Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete
Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.
FOMC: Central bankers face conundrum on inflation and growth
The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Investors face conundrum on government bond allocations
We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.
Steady Fed makes short end look attractive
Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to a volatile past week for investors, but uncertainty regarding central bank action continues to dominate the bond markets, with one investment bank now predicting nine straight hikes from the Fed beginning at its March meeting.
What are government bonds saying?
Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.
Yields soften blow of Powell’s hard words
Powell’s hard line may have surprised investors, particularly in light of recent market volatility and increasing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, but the Fed’s fear of prolonged higher inflation looks to be trumping those concerns.
Why so quiet at the Bank of England?
It has been a very interesting start to the year in the rates sector of the market.