20 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog Government Debt Has Exploded. Does It Matter? Given most countries are going through the same issues and their fiscal expansions are justified, the relative value has not changed that much. Read more
11 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog The US Bond Market Recovery has also Outpaced Equities…with a Twist Yesterday we showed that for European investors, what we speculated on back in March has come true; that the bond market did recover its losses far more quickly than equities, as shown below. Read more
11 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog Ratings Migration Pointing to Lower Defaults A trend of negative ratings migration has historically been a consistent precursor for a pick up in the default rate of publicly rated debt. Read more
10 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog The Bond Market Recovery has Outpaced Equities The clear opportunity within IG credit from our perspective, without having to take excessive risk, is to buy legacy Bank and Insurance IG debt. Read more
7 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog Starved of Income With BP slashing its dividend this week, we have now seen 52 of the FTSE 100 companies suspend or cut their dividends this year. Read more
6 Aug 2020 TwentyFour Blog Optimism from the FPC As expected the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept UK base rates at 0.1% and maintained their current level STG IG corporate bond on the BoE balance sheet at £745bn, with no immediate expectations of a need for further stimulus. Read more
30 Jul 2020 TwentyFour Blog Are Banks Becoming Less Cyclical? This week we are right in the middle of the European banks’ Q2 reporting period. Today for example we had results from a diverse group of Europe-listed banks, with Credit Suisse, BBVA, Lloyds and Standard Chartered all reporting. All have very different business models and footprints across varying geographies. Read more
24 Jul 2020 TwentyFour Blog Coventry Enters RMBS Premier League Coventry Building Society today priced a well-received £350m 2.5 year UK RMBS deal, and by using a Master Trust style structure (historically the preserve of only the largest UK banks) the issuer has beaten its own path to joining the big leagues of RMBS. Read more
20 Jul 2020 TwentyFour Blog UK Credit Can Benefit From ‘Japanification’ As more government bond curves around the world join the select group trading at negative yields, we are seeing a spike in ‘Japanification’ headlines in the press. Read more
17 Jul 2020 TwentyFour Blog Diverging Defaults and Cyclical Selections Earlier this week, Moody’s published its default study for June, which showed that as expected, default rates globally have started to pick up as a result of COVID-19. The trailing 12-month global high yield default rate reached 5.4% at the end of June, up from 4.8% in May, as the gap to the long term average of 4.1% continues to grow. Read more
15 Jul 2020 TwentyFour Blog Q2 Earnings Could Boost Outlook for Credit As we enter Q2 earnings season, we will be most interested to learn how Corporate America has fared over the past three months. Read more
13 Jul 2020 TwentyFour Blog Companies Unlikely to Underperform in Q2 Earnings Ultimately, while Q2 will be a bad quarter for many companies even if they outperform expectations, in our view it is not the real driver of spreads at this stage. Read more