27 Aug 2024 TwentyFour Blog Powell’s Masterplan allows for earlier intervention In his headlining speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s message to the market was clear. Read more
22 Aug 2024 TwentyFour Blog Fixed income in strong position with Fed cut a done deal It feels as though market news hasn’t taken a holiday so far this summer. From the US on Wednesday we got the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 30-31 policy meeting, and revisions to a whole year of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). Read more
16 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog Wages continue to rein in pace of ECB rate cuts Last month saw the European Central Bank (ECB) get their cutting cycle underway with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 3.75%. However, any expectations for a rapid series of reductions after the first move were tempered by President Christine Lagarde, who at the subsequent press conference was clear that the ECB could move in phases in which they left interest rates unchanged. Read more
5 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog Labour market cooling justifies Fed’s dovish lean One of the drivers of the dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December was the acknowledgement that the risks to the policy outlook had become more two-sided. In other words, while higher rates were still needed to tame inflation, the Fed saw a risk that staying restrictive for too long and risk damaging a labour market that has so far shown remarkable resilience. Read more
13 Jun 2024 TwentyFour Blog CPI and FOMC post mortem Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation as an entrée was well received by the diners, prompting a 15 basis points (bps) rally in the 10-year Treasury. The main course though, was met with some adverse critiques as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered a slightly more hawkish dot plot than expected. Read more
14 May 2024 TwentyFour Blog What's instore for the CPI release? The most important event this week is likely to be this Wednesday’s US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) release. Read more
2 May 2024 TwentyFour Blog Not much change at the Fed – so, what now? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was a relatively uneventful one, but there are a few points worth highlighting. Read more
25 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog Don't forget about money supply measures M1 and M2 Money supply measures such as M1 and M2 enjoyed a relatively brief period of fame and glory just after the pandemic. Read more
11 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog CPI surprises again on the upside The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the upside for the third month in a row. There was nowhere to hide in the release with a majority of sub categories and sub aggregates posting worse numbers than expected. Read more
13 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Mixed news from the CPI release - but what does it mean for rate cuts? Yesterday’s US CPI report delivered a few interesting numbers but is still consistent with the Fed’s goals and timelines, which should allow it to cut rates in the context of some sort of a soft landing. Read more
12 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Unemployment in the US: a tale of two surveys The latest US non-farm payroll numbers increased by 275,000 for February (payroll survey) incorporating a two-month payroll revision of -167,000, most likely due to seasonal factors, leaving a net revision of just 108,000 jobs added. Read more
9 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog Next week’s CPI numbers will provide more clues on rate cuts Next week markets will receive January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints from the US and the UK, which will no doubt be widely followed. In the US, the Bloomberg consensus is for a significant drop in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9%, while core is expected to decline by a less spectacular 20 bps from 3.9% to 3.7%. For the UK, consensus is for a small increase in CPI inflation from 4.0% to 4.1%. Read more