TwentyFour Blog

Over the past couple of months risk markets have experienced unprecedented volatility, and the economic uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic looks set to continue while a proven vaccine or an effective treatment both remain elusive.

The list of policy actions from the major central banks keeps getting longer, and today the Bank of Japan has added the purchase of “as many Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as necessary” so as to keep the 10-year rate at around zero percent.

We engage with Santander as a debt issuer across many jurisdictions and various fixed income products, and we have had mixed views on the bank’s behaviour in recent years following a controversial approach to a 2018 AT1 refinancing and the exercise of an early call in a Spanish ABS deal in 2019. On both these occasions, we felt bondholders were treated poorly and this was reflected in our ESG analysis of the issuer.

Although we are very much still in the grip of COVID-19’s impact, it has now been a month since the equity market’s trough and now would seem an opportune time to dissect some of the price action that preceded the unparalleled market turmoil in March.

The European high yield sector has seen a sharp correction from its highs earlier this year, with the Crossover index moving from a tight of 203bp in January to an intraday wide of 730p on March 18 (by this morning it had also seen a retracement of around 50% to 470bp).

When the Fed announced last month that it would be buying investment grade corporate bonds, it was said to have thrown the kitchen sink at the coronavirus problem. After this latest move, there are holes where the kitchen cabinets used to be.

It has been a positive sign for us that despite lockdowns being enforced in most of the major economies around the world, in the last two weeks several issuers have managed to successfully raise new debt via the primary market.

After a period of material weakness in spreads and general market stress, the common ingredient to recent corporate bond spread stability and subsequent strength has been the resurgence of the primary market.

Having started the year with low yields and tight spreads, fixed income markets had the most brutal month I can recall in March and have been repriced in the most aggressive manner imaginable. The dust does appear to have settled and a more balanced market without ‘fire sale’ pressure has returned, so we thought it was worth recapping where we are today and sharing some thoughts for the journey ahead.

As a manager that invests across the full spectrum of fixed income, we are constantly monitoring the relative value of the different opportunity sets that we cover. Given the fast moving prices we have witnessed recently, and with different asset classes and ratings moving at different times, this analysis can become increasingly valuable.

In response to the exceptional circumstances brought about by Covid-19, the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) at the Bank of England has written to UK banks asking them to ‘consider’ appropriate action regarding the payment, accrual and vesting of variable remuneration (i.e. bonuses) for senior staff, together with any dividend payments or share buyback plans.

In the last two weeks we’ve looked at how CLOs behaved during the global financial crisis, and we’ve stress tested a current CLO with GFC-like defaults to see where individual tranches would start to take a loss in that scenario. Keeping in mind the rule that the third in any trilogy is usually either the best or the worst, let’s hope this third instalment is more Toy Story 3 than Tokyo Drift.