TwentyFour Blog

For fixed income investors, the start to 2022 has been trickier than any we have experienced for many years, but we think this difficulty is to be expected and aligns with our macro view.

After a challenging January, which saw markets beginning to come to terms with a very hawkish Fed pivot and rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, it is worth taking stock of the moves we have seen in fixed income over the last few weeks.

Yesterday was a noisy day for the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB), usually an undesirable situation for market participants.

The first month of 2022 has passed, and it’s been quite a roller coaster for broader equity and credit markets, with volatility climbing to its highest level since January 2021.

After a relatively quiet period during the closing weeks last year, the primary ABS market has enjoyed a solid start to 2022.

Powell’s hard line may have surprised investors, particularly in light of recent market volatility and increasing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, but the Fed’s fear of prolonged higher inflation looks to be trumping those concerns.

If 2021 was a bad year for global bond returns, it follows there were few natural shelters to be found within fixed income from the brunt of inflation and rates-driven volatility; the Barclays Global Aggregate Index (a widely used broad measure of bond performance) returned -4.7% in USD terms, while European investment grade credit returned -1.1% despite credit spreads tightening over the course of the year.

It has been a very interesting start to the year in the rates sector of the market.

Électricité de France (EDF) shares fell by as much as 25% on Friday morning after the French government announced exceptional measures to limit the impact of high electricity prices on French consumers, at the expense of the energy provider – the shares are down over 30% since start of December. 

The first two trading weeks of the year are coming to an end and unlike previous years they have been packed with activity.

As we enter the third year of the pandemic, most market participants are asking themselves (once again) if this will be the year when supply chain issues finally abate.

Given the swiftness of the Fed’s pivot we think risks are tilted towards the central bank doing more and not less. We wouldn’t even rule out a 50bp rate hike at some point.