What are government bonds saying?
Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.
Insights Topic
US
Managing the downturn
As 2021 wore on we became increasingly concerned that the disconnect between asset prices, economic fundamentals and monetary policy was becoming more acute.
Yields soften blow of Powell’s hard words
Powell’s hard line may have surprised investors, particularly in light of recent market volatility and increasing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, but the Fed’s fear of prolonged higher inflation looks to be trumping those concerns.
Why so quiet at the Bank of England?
It has been a very interesting start to the year in the rates sector of the market.
Light at the end of the inventory tunnel
As we enter the third year of the pandemic, most market participants are asking themselves (once again) if this will be the year when supply chain issues finally abate.
Comprehending the latest Treasury spike
Given the swiftness of the Fed’s pivot we think risks are tilted towards the central bank doing more and not less. We wouldn’t even rule out a 50bp rate hike at some point.
FOMC: Hard to shake sense the Fed is behind the curve
Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, in which he said the Fed would discuss a faster taper of its asset purchases at December’s FOMC meeting, has led to intense speculation that we could see a move this week.
When will labour market strength JOLT Treasuries higher?
The labour market in the US shows little sign of weakening, despite the huge number of jobs already created this year.
The Rodney Blog 2022: Policy, economy and markets must converge
What we are currently experiencing is a disconnect between monetary policy, the economy and the markets, a disconnect that in our view will struggle to survive much longer.
How swaps can reduce rates risk as we move towards tightening
With rising government bond yield curves one of the biggest concerns for fixed income fund managers going into 2022, Eoin Walsh points to interest rate swaps as one option for reducing the rates risk of a portfolio without impacting its credit exposure.
2022 outlooks could make for a sobering December
This week the team at TwentyFour have been busy compiling our 2022 fixed income outlook, which will be published next week. There is no doubt we are confronted with a challenging set of circumstances, which will provide investors – not just in fixed income – with headwinds in the year ahead, and in particular we think during the first half.
The maths of the US labour market
Before the pandemic struck in February 2020, there were 159 million employed Americans; by the end of April that year, 26 million jobs disappeared. Since then, politicians and central bankers have focused on recovering all jobs lost to the pandemic fallout and returning to pre-COVID levels.