The evidence doesn’t point to recession
Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.
Insights Topic
US
Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete
Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.
Wave of inflation means companies will sink or swim on pricing power
Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.
FOMC: Central bankers face conundrum on inflation and growth
The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Investors face conundrum on government bond allocations
We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.
Steady Fed makes short end look attractive
Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to a volatile past week for investors, but uncertainty regarding central bank action continues to dominate the bond markets, with one investment bank now predicting nine straight hikes from the Fed beginning at its March meeting.
What are government bonds saying?
Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.
Managing the downturn
As 2021 wore on we became increasingly concerned that the disconnect between asset prices, economic fundamentals and monetary policy was becoming more acute.
Yields soften blow of Powell’s hard words
Powell’s hard line may have surprised investors, particularly in light of recent market volatility and increasing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, but the Fed’s fear of prolonged higher inflation looks to be trumping those concerns.
Why so quiet at the Bank of England?
It has been a very interesting start to the year in the rates sector of the market.
Light at the end of the inventory tunnel
As we enter the third year of the pandemic, most market participants are asking themselves (once again) if this will be the year when supply chain issues finally abate.
Comprehending the latest Treasury spike
Given the swiftness of the Fed’s pivot we think risks are tilted towards the central bank doing more and not less. We wouldn’t even rule out a 50bp rate hike at some point.