US

With investors seemingly unwilling to put money to work until they see clear evidence of the inflation trend reversing, Felipe Villarroel looks at two developments that tentatively suggest central banks’ delicate balancing act is actually working.

The US high yield market has experienced the third lightest month in terms of new issue flows since the Global Financial Crisis. Chris Holman explains what this means for default rates going into the second half of the year.

At this stage in the economic cycle investors may need to think about ways to protect their portfolios while providing strong relative value. Johnathan Owen explains why short dated investment grade can offer exactly that in his latest blog.

With Fed rate hikes continuing and the economy progressing into late cycle stages, Mark Holman presents his expectations from the Fed going into the second half of the year and explains why he believes Treasuries can provide the protection investors may need.

For all of these observations, there is one common observation – yields did not stay at these high levels for very long.

Given inflation has been running hot for more than a year now, it was no surprise to see the recent dip in US data greeted with a muted sigh of relief across the markets.

The Federal Reserve minutes for meetings held on the 3-4th May were released last night, and for markets that have been beaten up by rates volatility, they provided some interesting takeaways.

Consumers are being hit from seemingly all angles at the moment. Higher interest rates are coming, higher inflation is already hitting their pockets hard and economic growth is expected to slow.

The vast majority of the high yield universe used the attractive funding conditions last year to term out their maturity profiles. In fact, 2022 maturities in both US and European high yield equate to just 1% of their respective indices.

Earnings season is now in full swing, and it has undoubtedly been eventful. During the first quarter, companies have had to navigate multiple obstacles, including surging commodity prices, hawkish central bank policies, a Russian invasion, further supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns in China, and dwindling consumer confidence.

As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.