Monetary Policy

Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.

Following the release of the Monthly Labour Market Overview, Felipe Villarroel highlights key takeaways on the tightness of the UK’s labour market. He assesses the changes to the demand and supply of the labour force - focusing on the ‘Inactivty Rate’, “Long-Term Sick” and “Retired” categories, and migration trends - and what this means for wage inflation.

Felipe Villarroel discusses the observations of the median long run rate and what this means for the neutral rate.

In a week with several important releases and monetary policy decisions, what have we learnt?

What can we expect from central banks this week? Felipe Villarroel looks at how recent CPI prints in the Eurozone and in the United States are expected to influence upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions.

What have we learnt from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey? Felipe Villarroel discusses how latest changes in the consumer’s expectations of the economy reflect that the ECB’s monetary policy is actually working.

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. We look at the wider implications facing the US economy.

What do the release of the Fed minutes tell us about the forward path for monetary policy? Danny Zaid argues that for market participants looking for clarity, the minutes, provide more questions than answers.

Following the publication of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, Felipe Villarroel highlights what caught our attention in the report and if it signals further tightening of financial conditions.

Is the end of rate hikes near for the US? Concerns over regional banks and a weakening labour market are raising questions about the Fed's next move.