Monetary Policy

Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook. Not surprisingly, as we wrap up first quarter earnings season, tariffs have also emerged as the primary focus of CEOs and management teams of US corporates at the micro level.

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Volatility in Bunds seems to have calmed down slightly in the last few days as markets continue to digest huge fiscal expansion plans from Germany and the European Union. At the same time, many forecasters have been downgrading their US growth projections after reassessing the level of pain President Trump seems willing to inflict on the US economy in order to implement his policy agenda.

Overnight, the CDU/CSU (the winner of the latest German election) and the SPD (the leader of the current parliament set to end on March 25) announced Germany’s largest fiscal policy shift in decades.

In a week when US core consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.4% month-on-month and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank was in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, many market participants have been surprised by the relatively muted reaction in US Treasuries (USTs).

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.

The latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday showed ongoing resilience in the US labour market. To quote the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, “the labor market seems to be stabilizing at something close to a full employment rate.” Is he right?

We saw a sell-off across the UK Gilt curve on Wednesday with yields rising by 4bp at the short end and 11bp at the long end. This took the 10-year Gilt to 4.80% and the 30-year Gilt to 5.35%, with the latter bringing the unwelcome headline that UK borrowing costs are at their highest since the last century.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

As most analysts expected, the French parliament on Wednesday brought the metaphorical guillotine down on Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government. The no-confidence motion, brought by an alliance of left-wing parties while Barnier was attempting to pass a budget, was supported by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party.

Thanksgiving week is usually a lighter one when it comes to data releases in the US. Apart from a PCE and core PCE inflation numbers that came in line with expectations at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively, there has not been much data to move the dial. In Europe, on the other hand, there have been a few data releases and central banker interviews that are worth commenting on.

Real estate, and in particular real estate investment trusts (REITs), was one of the first sectors to come under market scrutiny as interest rates rose, but a strong return to market from Swedish real estate company Heimstaden on Tuesday was the latest sign that expected rate cuts in Europe are easing pressure on the industry.