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Monetary Policy

 Heimstaden shows rate cuts are reviving real estate
27 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Heimstaden shows rate cuts are reviving real estate

Real estate, and in particular real estate investment trusts (REITs), was one of the first sectors to come under market scrutiny as interest rates rose, but a strong return to market from Swedish real estate company Heimstaden on Tuesday was the latest sign that expected rate cuts in Europe are easing pressure on the industry.
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Is payday over for German workers?
21 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Is payday over for German workers?

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday published its quarterly negotiated wages indicator for Q3, and while this is only one indicator the ECB uses to determine wage inflation across the Eurozone, the growth rate of 5.4% was the highest since the early 1990s.
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 Debt brake putting the brakes on Germany’s economy
18 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Debt brake putting the brakes on Germany’s economy

The collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition just after the US election has left the Eurozone’s largest economy in political limbo at a difficult time.
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Does Trump’s win change anything for fixed income?
7 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Does Trump’s win change anything for fixed income?

With Donald Trump’s solid victory helping the dust around the US election result settle faster than many might have expected, investors’ attention has promptly shifted to the potential economic and financial market implications of the new administration.
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 Eurozone data soothes ECB growth concerns
1 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Eurozone data soothes ECB growth concerns

In what has been a busy week for macro news in Europe, the latest round of data for the Eurozone delivered a surprise that could have implications for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate plans.
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Not a budget for growth, but case for UK financials remains
31 Oct 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Not a budget for growth, but case for UK financials remains

With the first Labour budget since 2010 dominating headlines, hallway conversations and family gatherings in the UK for the past couple of months, the stakes were very high indeed for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, on Wednesday. Political opinions aside, the budget is usually an important event for market participants and this one was no exception.
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China's authorities show signs of life
14 Oct 2024 TwentyFour Blog

China's authorities show signs of life

After years of decline in China’s property market and limited, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsuccessful attempts by the country’s authorities to provide some sort of solution, details have emerged over the last few weeks of a more coherent plan to stop the bleeding.
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Non-farm payroll post-mortem
7 Oct 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Non-farm payroll post-mortem

Friday’s blockbuster jobs report saw a sharp sell-off in the government bond markets, with 10-year US Treasuries selling off by close to 15 basis points (bps), while the 2-year US Treasuries posted a 30 bps move in the same direction, dragging gilts and German bunds with them.
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The cutting cycle begins
19 Sep 2024 TwentyFour Blog

The cutting cycle begins

Uncertainty is over, it was a 50 basis points (bps) move. As we mentioned in our previous blog, the most important take away from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be their assessment of the economy.
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Volatile week possible after inconclusive US labour market data
9 Sep 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Volatile week possible after inconclusive US labour market data

We struggle to recall a more eagerly awaited US labour market report than that published last week. Stakes were high given the previous report showed a steep rise in unemployment and caused market mayhem in early August, but anyone hoping for a conclusive picture was left disappointed as a mixed set of figures left the strength of the US economy open to interpretation.
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Powell’s Masterplan allows for earlier intervention
27 Aug 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Powell’s Masterplan allows for earlier intervention

In his headlining speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s message to the market was clear.
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Fixed income in strong position with Fed cut a done deal
22 Aug 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Fixed income in strong position with Fed cut a done deal

It feels as though market news hasn’t taken a holiday so far this summer. From the US on Wednesday we got the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 30-31 policy meeting, and revisions to a whole year of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).
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