2 Nov 2023 TwentyFour Blog A big week for US treasuries as the Fed holds rates steady George Curtis breaks down the latest developments following this week’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee update. Read more
25 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog The ECB hiking cycle is likely to be over Yesterday, market participants received two important reports about the state of the economy in the Eurozone. Firstly, the October Markit PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index - reports showed a continued deterioration in growth in the manufacturing as well as the services sector. Read more
17 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog Today’s labour market numbers are good news for the Bank of England This morning the ONS published its monthly update on the UK labour market. Of all the G7 countries, the UK has had the most puzzling labour market dynamics post pandemic, as we discussed in a previous blog. Read more
13 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog Examined: the case for fixed income in a hard or soft landing Fixed income investors have gone through a stressful few weeks. Since the beginning of September, government bond yields have moved sharply higher, causing spreads to widen and returns to worsen across the board. Read more
9 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog What next for US regional banks with rates expected to be higher for longer? As we commence upon earnings season, we will be paying close attention to another round of updates from the US regional banks, particularly within the context of a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. With wider adoption of a soft-landing view, as well as a higher treasury yield backdrop, we explore what implications this has for the US regional banks. Read more
6 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog Sharp move in US treasuries led by talk of a soft landing The last few weeks has seen a sharp move up in long dated Treasuries, since the week of the FOMC meeting in September the US 10 year has moved up 45bp to 4.75% with a brief flirt with 4.90% in the meantime Read more
27 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog That shrinking feeling: Money supply tightens as rate hikes feed through Following the recent publication of the European Central Bank's monthly “Monetary Developments in the Euro Area” report, Felipe Villarroel takes a deep dive into how this report evidences the impact that successive rate hikes are having on the economy Read more
25 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog Pause for thought: Was this the BoE's final rate hike? Are central banks now at a point where they are done with hiking cycles and are we seeing a positive outcome for fixed income? Read more
21 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog Fed rates held: Goldilocks is in the building Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts. Read more
15 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB: That's All Folks? Felipe Villarroel argues that it will not be long before we see yields in fixed income assets at levels markedly above spot inflation which could translate in investors racing to lock in those yields. Read more
13 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog Growing signs that the UK labour market is weakening The labour market has been one of the major headaches the Bank of England has had to deal with in their battle against inflation. Yesterday the ONS released their monthly labour market update and although some of those headaches’ causes are not abating, there are others that are actually showing signs of progress. Read more
11 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB’s turn to skip? Dillon Lancaster comments on the divergence in views from ECB members, and whether the end of the week will see a 'skip' or 'hawkish pause'. He believes either outcome is not likely to have a huge effect on the market. Read more