Multi-Sector Bonds

Earnings season is now in full swing, and it has undoubtedly been eventful. During the first quarter, companies have had to navigate multiple obstacles, including surging commodity prices, hawkish central bank policies, a Russian invasion, further supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns in China, and dwindling consumer confidence.

Since the end of last year, central bank officials have been falling over themselves to increase their hawkishness around rates, particularly in the US. Even the ECB Governing Council members have been vocal of late.

So far, most fixed income asset classes have experienced a tumultuous 2022. With high yield markets bucking the trend in recent weeks, George Curtis takes a closer look at the drivers of the sector’s recent strength and its current opportunity set.

The reshaping of Deutsche Bank since the end of the global financial crisis has been one of the longest-running transformation stories in the banking sector.

So far this year, the spread between two-year and 10-year US Treasury yields has declined from 77bp to 51bp.

For fixed income investors, the start to 2022 has been trickier than any we have experienced for many years, but we think this difficulty is to be expected and aligns with our macro view.

After a challenging January, which saw markets beginning to come to terms with a very hawkish Fed pivot and rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, it is worth taking stock of the moves we have seen in fixed income over the last few weeks.

What we are currently experiencing is a disconnect between monetary policy, the economy and the markets, a disconnect that in our view will struggle to survive much longer.

Our base case is for a continuation of quite high growth and a modest inflation overshoot. For bond investors, positioning for stagflation could be a dangerous trade if that base case bears out

With ample job openings, inflation well ahead of target, financial conditions that are certainly not tight and strong economic growth, the obvious question is what does the Fed need to see to finally start tapering its asset purchases?

Despite the impressive returns of Euro HY over the last year or so, the backdrop for the asset class continues to suggest there is more upside to come.

This supply surge can be very welcome for those investors with cash to put to work, though it is also eyed with caution.