Multi-Sector Bonds

With ample job openings, inflation well ahead of target, financial conditions that are certainly not tight and strong economic growth, the obvious question is what does the Fed need to see to finally start tapering its asset purchases?

Despite the impressive returns of Euro HY over the last year or so, the backdrop for the asset class continues to suggest there is more upside to come.

This supply surge can be very welcome for those investors with cash to put to work, though it is also eyed with caution.

When combined with other prevalent market dynamics, the favourable ratings trend paves the way for a highly supportive fundamental terrain as we advance through the cycle and one that is ideal for portfolio managers selecting credits.

We agree that banks are sitting with an abundance of excess capital and will use some of it to repay shareholder support. However, capital buffers will remain elevated for some time to come,

So far, lockdown restrictions have suppressed each wave of the virus; will the competent authorities have the conviction to see this latest wave through without erring on the side of caution once again?

The current US economic expansion is now the longest in modern history, and investors globally will be seriously contemplating the end of the credit cycle. This late-cycle period could prove particularly challenging. Mark Holman, chief executive of TwentyFour Asset Management presents five tactics for fixed income investing late in the credit cycle.

Today marked the arrival of a long expected event, namely the inversion of the US yield curve between two and 10 years. This is an important event as historically it has been a very reliable indicator of impending recession. History tells us that once the 2s-10s curve inverts, on average a recession is a year to 18 months away.

Over the past few weeks there has been a noticeable increase in high yield new issuance, bringing a welcome flurry of activity to what has so far been a relatively benign year.

The UK’s political situation, and in particular the harder Brexit stance of the frontrunner for next prime minister, Boris Johnson, has provided the market with a steady stream of headlines over the past few weeks. As a direct consequence sterling is close to 6% off recent highs and domestic credit spreads have also underperformed their European and US peers.

TwentyFour CEO Mark Holman explains how high conviction thinking runs right through the firm’s investment process, and why he believes a concentrated, flexible portfolio is critical to combatting the unique challenges facing fixed income markets today.

With so much going in the markets, we decided to delay our 2019 outlook slightly, in order to meet with as many analysts and strategists as possible and ensure we had time to sensibly comprehend the recent turmoil. Recapping 2018 has not been an enjoyable exercise, but an important one if we are to move ahead with the right lessons and expectations for the coming year.