Fixed Income

Earnings season is now in full swing, and it has undoubtedly been eventful. During the first quarter, companies have had to navigate multiple obstacles, including surging commodity prices, hawkish central bank policies, a Russian invasion, further supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns in China, and dwindling consumer confidence.

CRE ABS offers conservatively structured debt features, with generally short duration exposure and a spread premium rewarding the more intensive underwriting and due diligence required.

So far, most fixed income asset classes have experienced a tumultuous 2022. With high yield markets bucking the trend in recent weeks, George Curtis takes a closer look at the drivers of the sector’s recent strength and its current opportunity set.

Despite the ECB's recent review bringing some previously debated points surrounding AT1s to the forefront, we believe any changes would create undesired, real-world consequences if implemented.

We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.

Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.

Powell’s hard line may have surprised investors, particularly in light of recent market volatility and increasing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, but the Fed’s fear of prolonged higher inflation looks to be trumping those concerns.

Given the swiftness of the Fed’s pivot we think risks are tilted towards the central bank doing more and not less. We wouldn’t even rule out a 50bp rate hike at some point.

As bondholders, we are comforted by all the banks passing such a severe test.

Against a backdrop of 4.20% year-on-year UK consumer price inflation (CPI), if you got your timing right, linkers (inflation-linked UK government bonds) will certainly have outperformed conventional Gilts by some margin.

The labour market in the US shows little sign of weakening, despite the huge number of jobs already created this year.

Markets have clearly experienced some periods of volatility this year, and while European CLOs haven’t been immune to this, both fundamentals and prices have been remarkably stable.