What are government bonds saying?
Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.
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TwentyFour Blog
Managing the downturn
As 2021 wore on we became increasingly concerned that the disconnect between asset prices, economic fundamentals and monetary policy was becoming more acute.
Buyers blunt BoE’s bond bombshell
Last week investors were faced with a double whammy of monetary tightening from the Bank of England (BoE), which on Thursday hiked interest rates by 25bp and announced the gradual unwind of its £20bn corporate bond portfolio.
What will turn this market around?
For fixed income investors, the start to 2022 has been trickier than any we have experienced for many years, but we think this difficulty is to be expected and aligns with our macro view.
Making sense of corporate bond softness
After a challenging January, which saw markets beginning to come to terms with a very hawkish Fed pivot and rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, it is worth taking stock of the moves we have seen in fixed income over the last few weeks.
Catching up the curve
Yesterday was a noisy day for the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB), usually an undesirable situation for market participants.
The CLO factory pauses for breath
The first month of 2022 has passed, and it’s been quite a roller coaster for broader equity and credit markets, with volatility climbing to its highest level since January 2021.
UK RMBS floating above the fray
After a relatively quiet period during the closing weeks last year, the primary ABS market has enjoyed a solid start to 2022.
Yields soften blow of Powell’s hard words
Powell’s hard line may have surprised investors, particularly in light of recent market volatility and increasing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, but the Fed’s fear of prolonged higher inflation looks to be trumping those concerns.
European ABS: Five things to expect in 2022
If 2021 was a bad year for global bond returns, it follows there were few natural shelters to be found within fixed income from the brunt of inflation and rates-driven volatility; the Barclays Global Aggregate Index (a widely used broad measure of bond performance) returned -4.7% in USD terms, while European investment grade credit returned -1.1% despite credit spreads tightening over the course of the year.
Why so quiet at the Bank of England?
It has been a very interesting start to the year in the rates sector of the market.
French government pulls the plug on EDF
Électricité de France (EDF) shares fell by as much as 25% on Friday morning after the French government announced exceptional measures to limit the impact of high electricity prices on French consumers, at the expense of the energy provider – the shares are down over 30% since start of December.