Fed still on narrow path to soft landing
Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.
Insights Topic
US
The Rodney Blog 2023: A return to returns
In our annual ‘Rodney Blog’, Eoin Walsh says that with rates now offering both yield and downside mitigation, and credit yields at near-decade highs, fixed income investors could enjoy strong returns in 2023
Labour market the driving force for the Fed
Following Chairman Powell’s speech last night, George Curtis looks at what the latest labour market data means for the Fed’s war on inflation.
Highest starting yields since ‘08 predict strong five-year returns
Chris Bowie explains why he believes analysing starting yields can explain improved returns over the next five years
Hint of cooling inflation can restore stability
With a US inflation print finally coming in below expectations, can investors start to picture decent returns again? Or will this latest relief rally prove another false dawn?
Credit quality deterioration is inevitable
Credit metrics will continue to deteriorate in the next year or two, but European high yield bonds in particular are pricing in too severe a downturn, says Mark Holman
Rates volatility not quite over yet
With US inflation data once again hammering markets, Mark Holman says that with US Treasury yields likely approaching their peak, a shift in sentiment for risk assets isn’t far away.
50 or 75? Across the board - both are live
Dillon Lancaster evaluates the impact of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on inflation and why he believes next month is set to be a very important period for central bank meetings.
Europe vs. the US – it's just a question of value
With Europe facing an energy crisis and the UK bracing for a five-quarter recession, a strong allocation bias to the US seems a no-brainer. However, George Curtis says that when looking at relative value in fixed income, the decision is never that simple.
Upcoming US earnings season sheds light on the health of corporate America
With earnings season entering full swing, David Norris highlights some indicators to look out for when assessing the current state of the US economy and the resulting actions expected from the Fed.
US bank chiefs still like the consumer
US banks remain bullish about the health of the consumer, but credit spreads are still pricing in not only a recession, but a fairly severe one. Are the banks wrong? Or have credit markets just backed up too far on negative fund flows?
Two pieces of good news for investors on inflation
With investors seemingly unwilling to put money to work until they see clear evidence of the inflation trend reversing, Felipe Villarroel looks at two developments that tentatively suggest central banks’ delicate balancing act is actually working.