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US

A big week for US treasuries as the Fed holds rates steady
2 Nov 2023 TwentyFour Blog

A big week for US treasuries as the Fed holds rates steady

George Curtis breaks down the latest developments following this week’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee update.
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Examine case research
13 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Examined: the case for fixed income in a hard or soft landing

Fixed income investors have gone through a stressful few weeks. Since the beginning of September, government bond yields have moved sharply higher, causing spreads to widen and returns to worsen across the board. 
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Dovish talk raises hopes that interest rates have peaked
11 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Dovish talk raises hopes that interest rates have peaked

Since the last Federal Open Market Committee rate decision on September 20, rates markets have sold off very aggressively. And, despite rates being left on hold, the hawkish message, which included the possibility of another hike this year and less cuts next year than previously forecast, was one of the key contributing factors behind the ~55bps increase in the 10-year treasury in the 10 days following that meeting.
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What next for US regional banks with rates expected to be higher for longer?
9 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog

What next for US regional banks with rates expected to be higher for longer?

As we commence upon earnings season, we will be paying close attention to another round of updates from the US regional banks, particularly within the context of a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. With wider adoption of a soft-landing view, as well as a higher treasury yield backdrop, we explore what implications this has for the US regional banks.
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Fed rates held: Goldilocks is in the building
21 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Fed rates held: Goldilocks is in the building

Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts.
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Will the Fed message soften at Jackson Hole?
22 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Will the Fed message soften at Jackson Hole?

An interesting debate, and topic that is attracting plenty of headlines given the recent volatility is where Treasury yields will ultimately settle, with a renewed focus on the neutral rate. Eoin Walsh explores the previous movements of Treasury yields and what Powell is likely to say at Jasckon Hole.
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Savings ratios diverging dynamics
4 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Diverging dynamics in savings ratios

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.
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Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up
2 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.
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Reinvestment risk growing, along with the soft landing narrative
19 Jul 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Reinvestment risk growing, along with the soft landing narrative

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.
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Soft landing narrative taking hold
18 Jul 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Soft landing narrative taking hold

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.
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US debt - stuck in a vicious cycle
1 Jun 2023 TwentyFour Blog

US debt - stuck in a vicious cycle

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. We look at the wider implications facing the US economy.
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Fed minutes: A tale of two camps
25 May 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Fed minutes: A tale of two camps

What do the release of the Fed minutes tell us about the forward path for monetary policy? Danny Zaid argues that for market participants looking for clarity, the minutes, provide more questions than answers.
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