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 ECB wage data - can I get a raise?
17 May 2024 TwentyFour Blog

ECB wage data - can I get a raise?

The European Central Bank (ECB) will almost certainly start their rates cutting cycle next month. Supportive inflation data and clear guidance from the governing council has driven market implied probabilities of a June cut to almost 100%, with little in the way to derail that.
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Not much change at the Fed – so, what now?
2 May 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Not much change at the Fed – so, what now?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was a relatively uneventful one, but there are a few points worth highlighting.
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Don't forget about money supply measures M1 and M2
25 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Don't forget about money supply measures M1 and M2

Money supply measures such as M1 and M2 enjoyed a relatively brief period of fame and glory just after the pandemic.
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Health of US small business: an indicator for the US economy
16 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Health of US small business: an indicator for the US economy

The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) survey can most certainly be considered an important report that monitors the pulse of the US economy.
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Maturity wall: what maturity wall?
19 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Maturity wall: what maturity wall?

We saw a great disparity among strategists in terms of default-rate projections for this year. With the cost for corporates to refinance their debt considerably higher than we saw in 2020 and 2021, and an elevated volume of upcoming maturities, many market participants predicted a default rate markedly higher than what we have seen so far. 
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Shelter component exposes the Fed's ‘last mile’ battle with inflation
16 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Shelter component exposes the Fed's ‘last mile’ battle with inflation

The January US consumer price index (CPI) data came in stronger than expected with core month-on-month figures coming in at 0.4 % (0.3% expected) and year-on-year figures at 3.9% (3.7% expected) but unchanged from December’s 3.9% print.
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US Credit shows healthy supply and demand dynamics
12 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog

US Credit shows healthy supply and demand dynamics

US corporate bond primary markets have had a robust start to the year as both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) companies have looked to take advantage of the recent rally in rates and spreads that we have experienced since Fed Chairman Powell's December FOMC comments up until his more cautious stance in the January meeting.
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Next week’s CPI numbers will provide more clues on rate cuts
9 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Next week’s CPI numbers will provide more clues on rate cuts

Next week markets will receive January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints from the US and the UK, which will no doubt be widely followed. In the US, the Bloomberg consensus is for a significant drop in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9%, while core is expected to decline by a less spectacular 20 bps from 3.9% to 3.7%. For the UK, consensus is for a small increase in CPI inflation from 4.0% to 4.1%.
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Issuer calls drive AT1 spread compression
5 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Issuer calls drive AT1 spread compression

A few weeks ago, JP Morgan skipped a call on one of its $1,000 par preference shares (“US Prefs”). The perpetual notes had a coupon of 6.75% payable until Jan’24, with a subsequent reset of 3-month SOFR + 404bps. Post the non-call, the coupon changed to 9.35% and will continue to reset every 3 months.
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‘Let’s be honest, this is a good economy’: the Fed’s comments unpicked
1 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog

‘Let’s be honest, this is a good economy’: the Fed’s comments unpicked

Yesterday was an eventful day for markets. We started off with inflation data in Europe, followed by an earnings release by New York Community Bank that showed large provisions in their commercial real estate loan book, before moving onto the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting
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PCE data brought something for everyone
29 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog

PCE data brought something for everyone

The long-awaited Personal Income and Outlays report for December was released last Friday. This piece produced by the U.S.’ Bureau of Economic Analysis contains information about personal income, savings rates and very importantly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of the economy.
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Will the uptick in US consumer credit influence Fed Policy?
22 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Will the uptick in US consumer credit influence Fed Policy?

The worsening US consumer credit data has largely fallen under radar. A few weeks ago, November 2023 data came in at $23.8bn representing a substantial increase from October’s $5.77bn and September’s $10.9bn.
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