Macroeconomics

With US inflation data once again hammering markets, Mark Holman says that with US Treasury yields likely approaching their peak, a shift in sentiment for risk assets isn’t far away.

Dillon Lancaster evaluates the impact of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on inflation and why he believes next month is set to be a very important period for central bank meetings.

Investors are eyeing a peak in inflation once more after US data came in lower than expected for the first time this year, and with credit finally seeing positive flows again, George Curtis sees markets grinding tighter over the rest of the summer.

With the Bank of England doling out a double dose of doom on UK inflation and growth on Thursday, Eoin Walsh says it is refreshing for investors to get such a candid assessment from a central bank.

US banks remain bullish about the health of the consumer, but credit spreads are still pricing in not only a recession, but a fairly severe one. Are the banks wrong? Or have credit markets just backed up too far on negative fund flows?

With corporate bond spreads having risen to not far short of crisis levels, Johnathan Owen argues the 4%-plus yields on offer in short dated investment grade are an attractive entry point for investors that might not be around for long.

With investors seemingly unwilling to put money to work until they see clear evidence of the inflation trend reversing, Felipe Villarroel looks at two developments that tentatively suggest central banks’ delicate balancing act is actually working.

After H1 2022 broke market records for all the wrong reasons, Gary Kirk says fixed income outflows could reverse quickly if investors see evidence that central banks are turning the tide on inflation.

Aza Teeuwen explains how market moves have impacted BB CLOs and looks at historic trends analysing their behaviour during crisis scenarios.

Given inflation has been running hot for more than a year now, it was no surprise to see the recent dip in US data greeted with a muted sigh of relief across the markets.

We can debate whether the European Central Bank is behind the curve or not, but Christine Lagarde says rates will be in non-negative territory by September.

With investors having endured a painful period of rising yields in 2022, Mark Holman looks at whether rates weakness or credit spread widening has been most to blame.