Inflation

Yesterday’s US CPI report delivered a few interesting numbers but is still consistent with the Fed’s goals and timelines, which should allow it to cut rates in the context of some sort of a soft landing.

The latest US non-farm payroll numbers increased by 275,000 for February (payroll survey) incorporating a two-month payroll revision of -167,000, most likely due to seasonal factors, leaving a net revision of just 108,000 jobs added.

We have had a busy week on the central bank front with the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday before Christine Lagarde took centre stage at the European Central Bank press conference yesterday. 

Last week's data deluge from the UK painted a mixed picture for the economy, offering insights into inflation, growth, and the possible path for interest rates.

The January US consumer price index (CPI) data came in stronger than expected with core month-on-month figures coming in at 0.4 % (0.3% expected) and year-on-year figures at 3.9% (3.7% expected) but unchanged from December’s 3.9% print.

Next week markets will receive January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints from the US and the UK, which will no doubt be widely followed. In the US, the Bloomberg consensus is for a significant drop in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9%, while core is expected to decline by a less spectacular 20 bps from 3.9% to 3.7%. For the UK, consensus is for a small increase in CPI inflation from 4.0% to 4.1%.

The long-awaited Personal Income and Outlays report for December was released last Friday. This piece produced by the U.S.’ Bureau of Economic Analysis contains information about personal income, savings rates and very importantly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of the economy.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gave a speech on November 28 titled: “Something Appears to Be Giving”, where he laid out the reasons why he is becoming more confident of the Fed’s ability to bring inflation down to its 2% target. 

With most central banks presumably at highs in terms of monetary policy rates during the current cycle, the focus has rightly shifted to the timing of the first cut. 

December’s CPI inflation report showed numbers slightly ahead of consensus in the US. On a month-on-month basis, headline CPI came at 0.3% compared to a Bloomberg consensus of 0.2%, whereas core CPI figures were in line with said consensus at 0.3%.

We recently highlighted in our 2024 outlook our expectations of significant inflows into fixed income to be an important technical driver of performance in the year ahead.

The solid end to 2023 for financial markets has influenced a positive start to 2024.