Banks

Money supply measures such as M1 and M2 enjoyed a relatively brief period of fame and glory just after the pandemic.

Volatility made an unwanted come back this week. A combination of rising tensions in the Middle East, strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) and labour market data in the US in previous days, and markets that looked somewhat expensive in certain sectors, all conspired to cause a widening in spreads and a correction in equity prices.

The Additional Tier 1's product was first launched in early 2013, so the asset class has mostly seen the period of negative interest rates and challenging operating environment post the Euro zone crisis.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the upside for the third month in a row. There was nowhere to hide in the release with a majority of sub categories and sub aggregates posting worse numbers than expected.

It has been an eventful few weeks in the European high yield market. After waiting a long time for a bus to come along, three have come along at once.

Quarter ends are always a useful time to take a step back and assess what the main macro drivers during the quarter were, which trades worked and which did not and to refresh macro views for the next period.

Over the course of last week, we saw several headlines around Additional Tier 1s (AT1s). First, the Dutch Finance Ministry indicated it is exploring the possibility of modifying or abolishing the asset class.

Yesterday’s US CPI report delivered a few interesting numbers but is still consistent with the Fed’s goals and timelines, which should allow it to cut rates in the context of some sort of a soft landing.

We have had a busy week on the central bank front with the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday before Christine Lagarde took centre stage at the European Central Bank press conference yesterday. 

NN Group, the Dutch insurer, has issued its inaugural €750m Restricted Tier 1 (RT1) deal, which came with a 6.375% coupon and BBB-/BBB rating from S&P/Fitch.

Almost a year ago to the day, we were in the midst of banking sector turmoil, which started off with regional banks in the US and spilled over to Europe, eventually culminating in the forced merger between Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse.  

Last week's data deluge from the UK painted a mixed picture for the economy, offering insights into inflation, growth, and the possible path for interest rates.