Multi-Sector Bonds

Today marked the arrival of a long expected event, namely the inversion of the US yield curve between two and 10 years. This is an important event as historically it has been a very reliable indicator of impending recession. History tells us that once the 2s-10s curve inverts, on average a recession is a year to 18 months away.

The current US economic expansion is now the longest in modern history, and investors globally will be seriously contemplating the end of the credit cycle. This late-cycle period could prove particularly challenging. Mark Holman, chief executive of TwentyFour Asset Management presents five tactics for fixed income investing late in the credit cycle.

Over the past few weeks there has been a noticeable increase in high yield new issuance, bringing a welcome flurry of activity to what has so far been a relatively benign year.

The UK’s political situation, and in particular the harder Brexit stance of the frontrunner for next prime minister, Boris Johnson, has provided the market with a steady stream of headlines over the past few weeks. As a direct consequence sterling is close to 6% off recent highs and domestic credit spreads have also underperformed their European and US peers.

TwentyFour CEO Mark Holman explains how high conviction thinking runs right through the firm’s investment process, and why he believes a concentrated, flexible portfolio is critical to combatting the unique challenges facing fixed income markets today.

With so much going in the markets, we decided to delay our 2019 outlook slightly, in order to meet with as many analysts and strategists as possible and ensure we had time to sensibly comprehend the recent turmoil. Recapping 2018 has not been an enjoyable exercise, but an important one if we are to move ahead with the right lessons and expectations for the coming year.

We hear from the portfolio managers about how their fixed income specialism gives them a unique insight into global bond markets.

Last year we wrote about the forthcoming "STS" (Simple, Transparent and Standardised) regulation for securitisation, designed in part to harmonise eligibility and capital charges for ABS across the wider regulatory landscape.

Several times this year we have discussed the benefits of “roll down” in an environment that for fixed income investing is particularly unfriendly. We believe roll down gains will be one of the best ways to protect portfolios in 2018 from the rising rate curves that we have been experiencing so far.