Global High Yield Bonds

After H1 2022 broke market records for all the wrong reasons, Gary Kirk says fixed income outflows could reverse quickly if investors see evidence that central banks are turning the tide on inflation.

The US high yield market has experienced the third lightest month in terms of new issue flows since the Global Financial Crisis. Chris Holman explains what this means for default rates going into the second half of the year.

For all of these observations, there is one common observation – yields did not stay at these high levels for very long.

With investors having endured a painful period of rising yields in 2022, Mark Holman looks at whether rates weakness or credit spread widening has been most to blame.

European high yield supply has endured its weakest start to a year in over a decade. The total supply to May 13th equalled €12.89bn, a fall of 75% year on year, with the market effectively closed for a large portion of the year.

As inflation continues to outstay its welcome in the global economy, we have previously discussed the impact of rising input costs on corporates and how crucial pricing power can be in such a challenging environment.

The vast majority of the high yield universe used the attractive funding conditions last year to term out their maturity profiles. In fact, 2022 maturities in both US and European high yield equate to just 1% of their respective indices.

The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.

So far, most fixed income asset classes have experienced a tumultuous 2022. With high yield markets bucking the trend in recent weeks, George Curtis takes a closer look at the drivers of the sector’s recent strength and its current opportunity set.

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.

Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.

Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.