Asset-Backed Securities

Inflation rates have been rising for over a year now. While the increasing levels may eventually moderate, inflation is still likely to be with us for some time, especially with the Russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbating post-Covid supply constraints.

We can debate whether the European Central Bank is behind the curve or not, but Christine Lagarde says rates will be in non-negative territory by September.

As inflation continues to outstay its welcome in the global economy, we have previously discussed the impact of rising input costs on corporates and how crucial pricing power can be in such a challenging environment.

CRE ABS offers conservatively structured debt features, with generally short duration exposure and a spread premium rewarding the more intensive underwriting and due diligence required.

Last week Oodle Financial Services successfully priced its fifth UK Auto ABS transaction, Dowson 2022-1.

Last week both the Fed and the BoE hiked rates by 0.25%, and judging by the Fed's dot plots and comments from the Bank of England (BoE), more hikes will likely follow in the coming months.

The first month of 2022 has passed, and it’s been quite a roller coaster for broader equity and credit markets, with volatility climbing to its highest level since January 2021.

After a relatively quiet period during the closing weeks last year, the primary ABS market has enjoyed a solid start to 2022.

If 2021 was a bad year for global bond returns, it follows there were few natural shelters to be found within fixed income from the brunt of inflation and rates-driven volatility; the Barclays Global Aggregate Index (a widely used broad measure of bond performance) returned -4.7% in USD terms, while European investment grade credit returned -1.1% despite credit spreads tightening over the course of the year.

The first two trading weeks of the year are coming to an end and unlike previous years they have been packed with activity.

As we enter the New Year, we say goodbye to an old “friend” that has accompanied us (for better and for worse) since the inception of the UK ABS market in the late 1980s – Sterling LIBOR.

Markets have clearly experienced some periods of volatility this year, and while European CLOs haven’t been immune to this, both fundamentals and prices have been remarkably stable.