24 Sep 2021 TwentyFour Blog Stagflation – Probable or Panic? Our base case is for a continuation of quite high growth and a modest inflation overshoot. For bond investors, positioning for stagflation could be a dangerous trade if that base case bears out Read more
15 Sep 2021 TwentyFour Blog The Conditions for Tapering Already Exist With ample job openings, inflation well ahead of target, financial conditions that are certainly not tight and strong economic growth, the obvious question is what does the Fed need to see to finally start tapering its asset purchases? Read more
8 Sep 2021 TwentyFour Blog For Bonds, Q4 Will Present Similar Challenges to Q1 As we rapidly descend upon the fourth quarter of this extraordinary year, we think some of the risks fixed income investors faced back in Q1 will rear their heads again before the end of 2021. Read more
19 Aug 2021 TwentyFour Blog Markets Rangebound For Now As the Delta variant establishes a hold in many countries, forcing some governments to re-assess reopening policies, the market is beginning to feel its impact. The implication on growth remains unclear, but early indications suggest the growth rate may have peaked for this year, albeit continuing its recovery. Read more
5 Aug 2021 TwentyFour Blog Don’t Fight the Fundamentals on US High Yield When combined with other prevalent market dynamics, the favourable ratings trend paves the way for a highly supportive fundamental terrain as we advance through the cycle and one that is ideal for portfolio managers selecting credits. Read more
29 Jun 2021 TwentyFour Blog Should We Fear the Repo Men? Given the magnitude of the amounts involved we do think there is potential for some temporary volatility in the US Treasury market as the volumes change. We will be keeping a keen eye on both in the months ahead. Read more
25 Jun 2021 TwentyFour Blog US Banks Pass Their Health Check Yesterday the US Federal Reserve released the results of its annual bank stress test, subjecting the 23 largest US lenders to a punitive set of scenarios. Some observers might think the events since March 2020 had been sufficient to test the resilience of the banks, but the Fed went beyond this recent real-life challenge and tested bank balance sheets against a range of hypothetical crises. Read more
15 Jun 2021 TwentyFour Blog FOMC: Taper Talk and Treasury Tumble With all of the recent data pointing to higher inflation expectations and the Fed expected to maintain a transitory interpretation, we will be focusing our attention on comments from the various regional Fed presidents on conditions that could prompt a tapering move at some point in the future. Read more
25 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog What Does US Wage Data Say About Inflation? From our perspective, the potential wage pressures we see make us uncomfortable with 10-year Treasury yields at current levels, despite their significant rise since the start of the year. Read more
21 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog Reaching For The Risk Dial as Valuations Stretch Having witnessed the most remarkable turnaround in risk markets over the last 14 months, it makes sense to take stock as fundamentals look to us to be approaching optimal levels. Credit spreads have ground into levels not far from the prior cycle’s tights, and while we remain confident in the underlying fundamentals and a good technical backdrop, recent developments mean that despite this constructive view, our risk appetite has ticked down slightly. Read more
14 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog What’s Really Going On With US Jobs? At 8.1m, the number of job openings as of March 31 was the highest it has been since the data series began some 20 years ago. Read more
11 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog Classic Late-cycle Issuance…in Mid-cycle Markets can often be tricky for investors in May as bond issuers take advantage of a window of opportunity following the Q1 earnings season and ahead of the typical summer lull. This often results in heavy supply in late April and early May, hence the old trader adage of “sell in May and go away”. Read more