3 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog Eventful few weeks in European high yield It has been an eventful few weeks in the European high yield market. After waiting a long time for a bus to come along, three have come along at once. Read more
2 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog Q1 recap: macro drivers and fixed income performance Quarter ends are always a useful time to take a step back and assess what the main macro drivers during the quarter were, which trades worked and which did not and to refresh macro views for the next period. Read more
25 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog AT1s caught in the crossfire but junior bank debt is here to stay Over the course of last week, we saw several headlines around Additional Tier 1s (AT1s). First, the Dutch Finance Ministry indicated it is exploring the possibility of modifying or abolishing the asset class. Read more
19 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Maturity wall: what maturity wall? We saw a great disparity among strategists in terms of default-rate projections for this year. With the cost for corporates to refinance their debt considerably higher than we saw in 2020 and 2021, and an elevated volume of upcoming maturities, many market participants predicted a default rate markedly higher than what we have seen so far. Read more
13 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Mixed news from the CPI release - but what does it mean for rate cuts? Yesterday’s US CPI report delivered a few interesting numbers but is still consistent with the Fed’s goals and timelines, which should allow it to cut rates in the context of some sort of a soft landing. Read more
12 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Unemployment in the US: a tale of two surveys The latest US non-farm payroll numbers increased by 275,000 for February (payroll survey) incorporating a two-month payroll revision of -167,000, most likely due to seasonal factors, leaving a net revision of just 108,000 jobs added. Read more
8 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Powell and Lagarde share notes on possible rate cuts We have had a busy week on the central bank front with the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday before Christine Lagarde took centre stage at the European Central Bank press conference yesterday. Read more
6 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog RT1s in vogue once again as issuance bounces back NN Group, the Dutch insurer, has issued its inaugural €750m Restricted Tier 1 (RT1) deal, which came with a 6.375% coupon and BBB-/BBB rating from S&P/Fitch. Read more
4 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog One year on from the collapse of Credit Suisse - and what a year it has been for AT1s Almost a year ago to the day, we were in the midst of banking sector turmoil, which started off with regional banks in the US and spilled over to Europe, eventually culminating in the forced merger between Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse. Read more
1 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Green waves down under: Australia's journey with sustainable RMBS Much like the European market, Australian ABS has started 2024 with considerable momentum, with over AU$12bn in issuance year-to-date and a significant pipeline building. But how are its green credentials? Read more
28 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog The latest insights on leveraged loans and their impact on CLOs Last year was a volatile year for global markets but also one where economies performed better than expected. If we look at the leveraged loan market, last year was characterised by a surge in so-called amend and extend (A&E). Read more
20 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog The UK’s data rollercoaster: recession confirmed, inflation eases, and consumers rebound Last week's data deluge from the UK painted a mixed picture for the economy, offering insights into inflation, growth, and the possible path for interest rates. Read more