Evidence of Tightening in Italy
We have been discussing for a while what the quantifiable impacts of Italy’s populist government have been for the country’s economy.
Insights Topic
Monetary Policy
Big Few Days For Europe’s Banks
As expected, the EBA 2018 stress tests, which were widely reported on yesterday did not have much of an impact on markets generally, although it’s worth looking at some of the stresses.
Call That a Correction?
A volatile last couple of weeks have certainly kept fixed income investors fastened firmly in their seats, with comments from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell suggesting US monetary policy was “nowhere near neutrality” sending shock waves through global rates, credit and equity markets.
Healthy Tightening in UK Credit Conditions
This morning the much anticipated Q3 2018 Credit Conditions Survey was released by the Bank of England.
Another Reason To Be Skeptical Of Italy's Growth Projections
It may come as a surprise to some that the country currently experiencing the fastest pace of monetary tightening across developed nations is in Europe, where the main refinancing rate is well and truly anchored at -0.40%.
Italy Disappoints
This morning we arrived to the news that the Italian government was preparing a budget that had a deficit of 2.4%.
The Fed is Far From Dovish
Having listened carefully to the FOMC news conference last night, the message to us was clear – the Fed is pushing ahead with its normalisation of rates and the gradual shrinking of its balance sheet.
Investors Need a Big Hike From Turkey
This is a crucial week for Turkey’s economy and the Central Bank of Turkey’s credibility.
Italian Politicians Are Listening to the Market
Last Friday we were surprised that a comment from a G7 finance minister, which should have been taken highly positively, was somewhat skipped over by the markets.
Italian Politics Delicately Poised
Our attention this morning was grabbed by a headline from Italy’s La Stampa, which reported that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria is preparing a 2019 budget that will result in a 1.5% deficit/GDP ratio for the indebted EU nation.
When Will The Fed Stop Hiking?
Whilst no hike from the FOMC was expected overnight, markets are still pricing in an eighth hike in September and a ninth in December, which would take the upper bound of the Fed Funds rate to 2.5%.
UK Rate Hike Now Nailed on
Even in the midst of a busy earning season, discussions on central bank policy never seem to go away.