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JGBs: are rising yields a risk to insurers?
27 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

JGBs: are rising yields a risk to insurers?

Over the last couple weeks, we have seen an ongoing increase in government bond yields across the major global economies, with a particular focus on Japan as yields on longer dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have moved sharply higher.
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Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
20 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.
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US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro
14 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro

Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook.
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European banks bullish despite tariff uncertainty
12 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

European banks bullish despite tariff uncertainty

European banks are coming to the end of the Q1 2025 reporting season, and on the surface there are multiple headwinds to contend with.
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What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?
9 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?

With much fanfare, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer announced a “historic” trade deal between the US and UK on Thursday. The main points for the UK are a reduction in auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars that enter the US, and the removal of steel and aluminium tariffs.
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The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil
6 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil

April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.
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Was negative US growth actually negative?
1 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Was negative US growth actually negative?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis.
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Lottomatica reopens high yield for right names
28 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Lottomatica reopens high yield for right names

The high yield bond market reopened in Europe last week after a three-week hiatus triggered by the US tariffs fallout. Aside from a private placement by Very Group on April 10, the last public European high yield deal was from UK homebuilder Miller Homes on March 31, so we were interested to see how the first post-tariffs deal would be received.
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Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position
23 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position

With a week currently feeling like a long time in geopolitics, the European sovereign crisis at the beginning of the last decade feels even more like a distant memory. The road to recovery for Europe’s periphery economies has been long and windy, but post-Covid it has been surprisingly smooth.
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What next for European ABS post-tariffs?
22 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

What next for European ABS post-tariffs?

Markets settled down last week thanks to the absence of headlines around tariffs. There is a universal acceptance that uncertainty and volatility will remain, though a series of constructive data prints relating to inflation and labour markets have now been navigated, and investors are shifting their focus to how central banks will weigh up the growth and inflationary impact of tariffs at the next round of meetings.
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Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets
14 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.
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 European banks show no sign of funding stress in tariff sell-off
7 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

European banks show no sign of funding stress in tariff sell-off

With the market focus over the last week or so being firmly on equities and credit spreads, it is worth zooming in on developments in the European bank credit default swap (CDS) market.
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