TwentyFour Blog

Our base case is for a continuation of quite high growth and a modest inflation overshoot. For bond investors, positioning for stagflation could be a dangerous trade if that base case bears out

It will take time for this sector to recover and we are likely to see more suppliers collapse in the coming weeks and months.

With ample job openings, inflation well ahead of target, financial conditions that are certainly not tight and strong economic growth, the obvious question is what does the Fed need to see to finally start tapering its asset purchases?

BWIC – or bids wanted in competition – lists, are a unique characteristic of the ABS and CLO markets, where they are widely used in secondary trading when investors are looking to sell bonds.

As we rapidly descend upon the fourth quarter of this extraordinary year, we think some of the risks fixed income investors faced back in Q1 will rear their heads again before the end of 2021.

Despite the impressive returns of Euro HY over the last year or so, the backdrop for the asset class continues to suggest there is more upside to come.

This supply surge can be very welcome for those investors with cash to put to work, though it is also eyed with caution.

As the Delta variant establishes a hold in many countries, forcing some governments to re-assess reopening policies, the market is beginning to feel its impact. The implication on growth remains unclear, but early indications suggest the growth rate may have peaked for this year, albeit continuing its recovery.

Last week, Morgan Stanley successfully brought the first public German Multifamily CMBS deal (HAUS - Eloc 39) to market since 2013. Despite coming to the market in the middle of the summer, the deal has attracted strong demand across the capital stack.

When combined with other prevalent market dynamics, the favourable ratings trend paves the way for a highly supportive fundamental terrain as we advance through the cycle and one that is ideal for portfolio managers selecting credits.

We can model all kinds of credit risk as long as there is enough protection in the structure for investors to get comfortable with a degree of residual value risk.

After a hectic first half of the year, most investors, including us, were hoping for a dull summer to recharge our batteries, but it seems there’s no respite from the CLO machine.