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US

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
20 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.
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US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro
14 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro

Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook.
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What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?
9 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?

With much fanfare, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer announced a “historic” trade deal between the US and UK on Thursday. The main points for the UK are a reduction in auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars that enter the US, and the removal of steel and aluminium tariffs.
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The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil
6 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil

April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.
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Was negative US growth actually negative?
1 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Was negative US growth actually negative?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis.
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Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position
23 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position

With a week currently feeling like a long time in geopolitics, the European sovereign crisis at the beginning of the last decade feels even more like a distant memory. The road to recovery for Europe’s periphery economies has been long and windy, but post-Covid it has been surprisingly smooth.
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Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets
14 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.
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Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them
3 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.
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Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?
1 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?

If we look at the main drivers of returns in Q1 2025, the first one that comes to mind is tariffs. But while this is true for equities and credit spreads, in the context of global fixed income the main driver of total returns in Q1 was the Bund sell-off triggered by a momentous shift in German fiscal policy.
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What does shifting sentiment mean for ABS and CLOs?
18 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

What does shifting sentiment mean for ABS and CLOs?

Last week we wrote about a notable shift in market sentiment and how this had impacted our view of relative value within fixed income. So, where has the impact been felt, and has it changed our view on relative value?
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US growth fears highlight strength of European yields
14 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US growth fears highlight strength of European yields

Volatility in Bunds seems to have calmed down slightly in the last few days as markets continue to digest huge fiscal expansion plans from Germany and the European Union. At the same time, many forecasters have been downgrading their US growth projections after reassessing the level of pain President Trump seems willing to inflict on the US economy in order to implement his policy agenda.
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Market moves and headlines - not enough to change macro outlook
3 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Market moves and headlines - not enough to change macro outlook

Last week, risky assets continued to experience a somewhat volatile period. The tone was generally a risk off one, with correlations between risk free and risky assets back to negative.
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