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US labour market data busts benign macro narrative
4 Aug 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US labour market data busts benign macro narrative

In describing how markets have been pricing risk in recent months, the word “complacent” has been uttered on multiple occasions. If that was your view, then Friday’s sharp risk-off move could be seen as a wake-up call, or at least evidence that investors are keenly watching for any change in the more benign macro story that has dominated recently.
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US corporate hybrids gain momentum after ratings shift
29 Jul 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US corporate hybrids gain momentum after ratings shift

The European corporate hybrid market has been established for some time. It is dominated by investment grade issuers seeking to raise capital with limited impact on their leverage ratios, thanks to rating agency treatment that classifies hybrids as 50% equity and 50% debt from a balance sheet perspective.
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US-EU deal welcome news in markets with little room for error
28 Jul 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US-EU deal welcome news in markets with little room for error

The US and the European Union (EU) have reached a trade agreement, averting a worst-case scenario of a more damaging trade war.
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Oil, Iran and why markets are staying calm
17 Jun 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Oil, Iran and why markets are staying calm

Despite Israel and Iran exchanging fire for a fifth day, markets seem to be completely disregarding the possibility of this conflict mutating into something serious for the global economy.
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Section 899: A big, beautiful source of uncertainty for foreign investors?
4 Jun 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Section 899: A big, beautiful source of uncertainty for foreign investors?

As markets digest and speculate about the implications of the Trump administration’s 1,000+ page One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), new details are beginning to emerge.
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Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
20 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.
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US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro
14 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro

Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook.
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What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?
9 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?

With much fanfare, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer announced a “historic” trade deal between the US and UK on Thursday. The main points for the UK are a reduction in auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars that enter the US, and the removal of steel and aluminium tariffs.
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The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil
6 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil

April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.
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Was negative US growth actually negative?
1 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Was negative US growth actually negative?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis.
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Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position
23 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position

With a week currently feeling like a long time in geopolitics, the European sovereign crisis at the beginning of the last decade feels even more like a distant memory. The road to recovery for Europe’s periphery economies has been long and windy, but post-Covid it has been surprisingly smooth.
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Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets
14 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.
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