Securitisation

We can model all kinds of credit risk as long as there is enough protection in the structure for investors to get comfortable with a degree of residual value risk.

After a hectic first half of the year, most investors, including us, were hoping for a dull summer to recharge our batteries, but it seems there’s no respite from the CLO machine.

It is quite rare that we recommend playing in the very bottom of the credit spectrum because CCC rated bonds are where at least 95% of all defaults come from, and are significantly more volatile than we would like.

Rates risk is not something we concern ourselves with too much in the European ABS market, so normally news of inverted yield curves and 30-year US Treasury yields dropping below 2% would largely wash over us. This is because pretty much all ABS bonds are floating rate, so there is no duration. Or is there?

“…everybody’s having fun. Look to the future now, it’s only just begun.”

On Monday my colleagues on TwentyFour’s Multi-Sector Bond desk published a blog on rising default risks in high yield credit. Dummen Orange, Douglas, Boparan, Moby, Galapagos and CMC Ravenna are some of the obvious under-pressure names held in loan funds and CLO portfolios that are trading at a significant discount in the market.

Changes in regulations are typically long and drawn out, but their impact can often be felt quite quickly. There is every chance that this could soon be the case in ABS markets.

At TwentyFour our Italian ABS holdings are fairly moderate, and in general our peripheral ABS exposure has been steadily decreasing for some time. This has nothing to do with credit quality, but everything to do with relative value.

Sadly this is not a review of the new Queen biopic, it’s a eulogy to a bond which was called today that is as well known in the securitisation world as Freddie Mercury is in the real one – Paragon Secured Finance 1 (or PSF 1 as we knew it).

This year has been a big one for sterling bond supply, especially in the ABS market. With the end of the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme and the comeback of traditional bank issuers, UK issuance volume year-to-date has totalled €25bn from 38 deals placed across different asset classes.

There have been a number of recent articles in the mainstream press about the 10 year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, with some saying familiar risks are emerging and questioning whether lessons have been learned.

In the early 1990s, Marvel comics introduced a world 100 years in the future with new stories for its popular heroes and villains. Doctor Doom's story was called "The Doom of Tomorrow".