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Inflation

Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets
14 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.
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  Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads
27 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
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Fed and ECB meetings point to divergence in paths
31 Jan 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Fed and ECB meetings point to divergence in paths

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.
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Tariffs are the noise. Housing is the signal.
24 Jan 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Tariffs are the noise. Housing is the signal.

Much of the discussion around inflation over the past few months has centred on the potential for US tariffs, a focus that has only intensified following Donald Trump’s inauguration.
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Q1 2024 déjà vu as inflation data soothes rates sell-off
16 Jan 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Q1 2024 déjà vu as inflation data soothes rates sell-off

Global rates markets rallied sharply on Wednesday after fixed income investors received some long-awaited good news in the shape of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which came in below consensus in both the US and the UK.
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Servicers key as UK rates put pressure on pre-crisis RMBS
15 Jan 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Servicers key as UK rates put pressure on pre-crisis RMBS

Last week Fitch Ratings published a report concerning asset performance deterioration in UK residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) originated prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).
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Gilt yields gap higher
9 Jan 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Gilt yields gap higher

We saw a sell-off across the UK Gilt curve on Wednesday with yields rising by 4bp at the short end and 11bp at the long end. This took the 10-year Gilt to 4.80% and the 30-year Gilt to 5.35%, with the latter bringing the unwelcome headline that UK borrowing costs are at their highest since the last century.
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Macro data and central banks miss the year-end memo
18 Dec 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Macro data and central banks miss the year-end memo

Primary market and trading activity may be declining as is typical in late December, but macro data doesn’t sleep, and central banks haven’t got the memo on the wind-down into year-end either with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
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Fixed Income 2025: Yields trump possibility of spread correction
10 Dec 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Fixed Income 2025: Yields trump possibility of spread correction

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.
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Eurozone inflation, growth and ECB speak
29 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Eurozone inflation, growth and ECB speak

Thanksgiving week is usually a lighter one when it comes to data releases in the US. Apart from a PCE and core PCE inflation numbers that came in line with expectations at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively, there has not been much data to move the dial. In Europe, on the other hand, there have been a few data releases and central banker interviews that are worth commenting on.
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Is payday over for German workers?
21 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Is payday over for German workers?

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday published its quarterly negotiated wages indicator for Q3, and while this is only one indicator the ECB uses to determine wage inflation across the Eurozone, the growth rate of 5.4% was the highest since the early 1990s.
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Does Trump’s win change anything for fixed income?
7 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Does Trump’s win change anything for fixed income?

With Donald Trump’s solid victory helping the dust around the US election result settle faster than many might have expected, investors’ attention has promptly shifted to the potential economic and financial market implications of the new administration.
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