Waller vs Warsh: Finding the Fed’s strike zone
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to define a clear “strike zone” for forward guidance has put him increasingly at odds with Governor Christopher Waller.
Insights Topic
Macroeconomics
Warsh finally gives markets much needed clarity
Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech went a long way, in our view, towards restoring some much-needed credibility to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) reaction function and its commitment to the dual mandate.
Resilient Q2 growth underpins credit strength for the rest of the year
The last couple of weeks have been busy on the GDP front with a few countries reporting Q2 growth numbers.
European financials remain strong after Q2 earnings
As we approach the end of the reporting season for European financials, including banks and insurers, Q2 2026 has proven to be another strong quarter, with most reported earnings coming in ahead of consensus and several banks upgrading their already ambitious profitability guidance for the year.
What happens when Fed credibility comes under pressure?
The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left a strange taste on investors' mouths. In our view, Chair Kevin Warsh failed to clarify the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) reaction function and the central bank’s views on the current economic picture and relating to monetary policy.
Can Warsh get markets to play the ball, not the referee?
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh hosted his second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, with most people, including ourselves, expecting a hawkish hold.
Better times ahead? Assessing Germany’s new macro reforms
The German government has been quite an active and bold one since it took office some 15 months ago.
European bank results show little impact from Middle East conflict
European bank results for the first quarter of 2026 have revealed a strong start to the year, allaying some of the concern that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East might impact bank fundamentals to some extent.
Deal selection critical as credit shrugs off Iran conflict
Credit markets have been remarkably resilient in the face of significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in recent weeks.
The state of play in fixed income as Iran tensions reignite
With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.
This isn’t 2022, but inflation threat is real
With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.
What the bear case on AI is missing
We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.