Macroeconomics

Prediction markets suggest the Democrats are capable of gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives at the US midterm elections on November 3, with Polymarket putting the chance of a “sweep” at 64% as of Friday morning.

The latest FOMC meeting delivered more than a rate hike. Chair Warsh's clear hawkish message that inflation has been too high for too long helped restore confidence in the Fed's commitment to tackling inflation, with important implications for bond markets and rate expectations.

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to define a clear “strike zone” for forward guidance has put him increasingly at odds with Governor Christopher Waller.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech went a long way, in our view, towards restoring some much-needed credibility to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) reaction function and its commitment to the dual mandate.

The last couple of weeks have been busy on the GDP front with a few countries reporting Q2 growth numbers.

As we approach the end of the reporting season for European financials, including banks and insurers, Q2 2026 has proven to be another strong quarter, with most reported earnings coming in ahead of consensus and several banks upgrading their already ambitious profitability guidance for the year.

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left a strange taste on investors' mouths. In our view, Chair Kevin Warsh failed to clarify the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) reaction function and the central bank’s views on the current economic picture and relating to monetary policy.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh hosted his second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, with most people, including ourselves, expecting a hawkish hold.

The German government has been quite an active and bold one since it took office some 15 months ago.

European bank results for the first quarter of 2026 have revealed a strong start to the year, allaying some of the concern that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East might impact bank fundamentals to some extent.

Credit markets have been remarkably resilient in the face of significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in recent weeks.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.