No one is buying OATs. Will the ECB?
French government bonds (OATs) keep on breaking records and psychological barriers, with the latest being 10-year yields smashing through 5% for the first time since 2002 this week.
Insights Topic
Macroeconomics
French banks caught in crossfire, but fundamentals are solid
France has been the primary focus of the European rates markets in the past week, with domestic political risk and debt concerns adding to a general sell-off across government bonds.
Markets can’t rely on midterms to change course of Iran war
Prediction markets suggest the Democrats are capable of gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives at the US midterm elections on November 3, with Polymarket putting the chance of a “sweep” at 64% as of Friday morning.
Warsh delivers a boost to Fed's credibility
The latest FOMC meeting delivered more than a rate hike. Chair Warsh's clear hawkish message that inflation has been too high for too long helped restore confidence in the Fed's commitment to tackling inflation, with important implications for bond markets and rate expectations.
Waller vs Warsh: Finding the Fed’s strike zone
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to define a clear “strike zone” for forward guidance has put him increasingly at odds with Governor Christopher Waller.
Warsh finally gives markets much needed clarity
Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech went a long way, in our view, towards restoring some much-needed credibility to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) reaction function and its commitment to the dual mandate.
Resilient Q2 growth underpins credit strength for the rest of the year
The last couple of weeks have been busy on the GDP front with a few countries reporting Q2 growth numbers.
European financials remain strong after Q2 earnings
As we approach the end of the reporting season for European financials, including banks and insurers, Q2 2026 has proven to be another strong quarter, with most reported earnings coming in ahead of consensus and several banks upgrading their already ambitious profitability guidance for the year.
What happens when Fed credibility comes under pressure?
The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left a strange taste on investors' mouths. In our view, Chair Kevin Warsh failed to clarify the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) reaction function and the central bank’s views on the current economic picture and relating to monetary policy.
Can Warsh get markets to play the ball, not the referee?
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh hosted his second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, with most people, including ourselves, expecting a hawkish hold.
Better times ahead? Assessing Germany’s new macro reforms
The German government has been quite an active and bold one since it took office some 15 months ago.
European bank results show little impact from Middle East conflict
European bank results for the first quarter of 2026 have revealed a strong start to the year, allaying some of the concern that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East might impact bank fundamentals to some extent.