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  • US earnings season: What the micro tells us about the macro
  • Fundamentals show European banks well set up as bonds are still cheap
  • Hitting the wall: What next for high yield default rates?
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COVID-19

Savings ratios diverging dynamics
TwentyFour Blog | Read | 2 min 4 Aug 2023

Diverging dynamics in savings ratios

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 2 min 19 Aug 2021

Markets Rangebound For Now

As the Delta variant establishes a hold in many countries, forcing some governments to re-assess reopening policies, the market is beginning to feel its impact. The implication on growth remains unclear, but early indications suggest the growth rate may have peaked for this year, albeit continuing its recovery.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 3 min 21 Jul 2021

A More Volatile Summer Ahead

So far, lockdown restrictions have suppressed each wave of the virus; will the competent authorities have the conviction to see this latest wave through without erring on the side of caution once again?

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 2 min 6 Jul 2021

Supply points to Selectivity?

Doing the necessary work to understand the difference between companies merely exposed to COVID restrictions and those structurally damaged by them continues to be extremely important.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 3 min 8 Dec 2020

How Has COVID-19 Changed ESG?

ESG investing was tipped to be the biggest theme of 2020 for financial markets, but was swiftly superseded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has dominated investors’ thoughts since Q1. We thought it was important to revisit this topic and explore if and how the pandemic has changed the world of ESG.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 2 min 2 Nov 2020

Time to Get Tactical in Treasuries?

Regular readers will know that we have a positive medium term view of spread products. This is based on a number of factors; valuations in our view are reasonably attractive compared to history, we are convinced that both monetary and fiscal stimulus will remain in place for an extended period of time, and perhaps most importantly we remain at a very early stage of the new cycle.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 4 min 13 Oct 2020

Corp Hybrids Look Attractive at This Stage of Cycle

Corporate hybrids have evolved in recent years into a large and well-established asset class within the European fixed income market, with €185bn of bonds outstanding.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 3 min 2 Oct 2020

Europe’s Lending Machine Fuels ABS De-leveraging

One of the legacies of Europe’s post-crisis lending landscape was a huge retrenchment in risk appetite, amplified by a lack of bank capital and in some instances funding for an extended period of time.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 2 min 17 Jul 2020

Diverging Defaults and Cyclical Selections

Earlier this week, Moody’s published its default study for June, which showed that as expected, default rates globally have started to pick up as a result of COVID-19. The trailing 12-month global high yield default rate reached 5.4% at the end of June, up from 4.8% in May, as the gap to the long term average of 4.1% continues to grow.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 2 min 6 Jul 2020

Anticipation Building for Q2 Reporting Season

Like many market participants we are looking ahead to a much anticipated Q2 reporting season, which is even more pertinent this year given the unprecedented environment we have all found ourselves in. We are particularly interested in reviewing the major banks given they are at the centre of the transmission mechanism and hence a barometer for the wider economy.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 3 min 3 Jul 2020

It’s Still Harvest Season For The Brexit Premium

One topic that is beginning to gather headlines again is the terms of any bilateral agreement between the UK and European Union once Brexit is finally completed at the end of this year, with the latest round of negotiations breaking up a day early this week as both sides said they were still far apart on a number of issues.

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TwentyFour Blog | Read | 4 min 24 Jun 2020

RMBS Data Shed Light on UK Mortgage Holidays

The dust is beginning to settle in the UK economy, and we have been busy using granular RMBS data to assess the impact of mortgage payment relief (payment “holidays”), which the Financial Conduct Authority guided lenders to offer borrowers affected by COVID-19.

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