Banks

As earnings season ends, we take stock of the latest US results and what it tells us about the health of corporates, the consumer, and the outlook for the broader economy.

UBS came to the market yesterday with a two-tranche $ additional tier 1 transaction, which was highly anticipated and didn’t disappoint.

Whilst bank debt has recovered from the contagion of the US regional banking crisis and the Credit Suisse write down event earlier this year, many bonds are still trading wider than they were at the beginning of the year.

Yesterday, market participants received two important reports about the state of the economy in the Eurozone. Firstly, the October Markit PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index - reports showed a continued deterioration in growth in the manufacturing as well as the services sector.

Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, called any (potential) upcoming recession "the most predicted recession ever".

A recent article in Bloomberg has generated some discussion around proposed changes to the way AT1 bonds are called.

This morning the ONS published its monthly update on the UK labour market. Of all the G7 countries, the UK has had the most puzzling labour market dynamics post pandemic, as we discussed in a previous blog.

Fixed income investors have gone through a stressful few weeks. Since the beginning of September, government bond yields have moved sharply higher, causing spreads to widen and returns to worsen across the board. 

As we commence upon earnings season, we will be paying close attention to another round of updates from the US regional banks, particularly within the context of a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. With wider adoption of a soft-landing view, as well as a higher treasury yield backdrop, we explore what implications this has for the US regional banks.

The last few weeks has seen a sharp move up in long dated Treasuries, since the week of the FOMC meeting in September the US 10 year has moved up 45bp to 4.75% with a brief flirt with 4.90% in the meantime

Following the recent publication of the European Central Bank's monthly “Monetary Developments in the Euro Area” report, Felipe Villarroel takes a deep dive into how this report evidences the impact that successive rate hikes are having on the economy

Are central banks now at a point where they are done with hiking cycles and are we seeing a positive outcome for fixed income?