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  • Section 899: A big, beautiful source of uncertainty for foreign investors?
  • JGBs: are rising yields a risk to insurers?
  • European high yield untroubled by default rate spike
  • Oil, Iran and why markets are staying calm
  • Should investors care about negative swap spreads?
  • Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
  • ECB preview: Is this the bottom for monetary policy rates?
  • Watching spreads and structures as ABS momentum builds
  • The growing appeal of Significant Risk Transfer in private credit
  • Patchy UK labour data strengthens case for BoE cuts
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Government Bonds

Oil, Iran and why markets are staying calm
17 Jun 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Oil, Iran and why markets are staying calm

Despite Israel and Iran exchanging fire for a fifth day, markets seem to be completely disregarding the possibility of this conflict mutating into something serious for the global economy.
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JGBs: are rising yields a risk to insurers?
27 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

JGBs: are rising yields a risk to insurers?

Over the last couple weeks, we have seen an ongoing increase in government bond yields across the major global economies, with a particular focus on Japan as yields on longer dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have moved sharply higher.
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Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
20 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.
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Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them
3 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.
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Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?
1 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?

If we look at the main drivers of returns in Q1 2025, the first one that comes to mind is tariffs. But while this is true for equities and credit spreads, in the context of global fixed income the main driver of total returns in Q1 was the Bund sell-off triggered by a momentous shift in German fiscal policy.
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  Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads
27 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
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US growth fears highlight strength of European yields
14 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US growth fears highlight strength of European yields

Volatility in Bunds seems to have calmed down slightly in the last few days as markets continue to digest huge fiscal expansion plans from Germany and the European Union. At the same time, many forecasters have been downgrading their US growth projections after reassessing the level of pain President Trump seems willing to inflict on the US economy in order to implement his policy agenda.
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Market moves and headlines - not enough to change macro outlook
3 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Market moves and headlines - not enough to change macro outlook

Last week, risky assets continued to experience a somewhat volatile period. The tone was generally a risk off one, with correlations between risk free and risky assets back to negative.
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Could bank deregulation explain resilience in US Treasuries?
14 Feb 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Could bank deregulation explain resilience in US Treasuries?

In a week when US core consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.4% month-on-month and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank was in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, many market participants have been surprised by the relatively muted reaction in US Treasuries (USTs).
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Should investors care about negative swap spreads?
13 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Should investors care about negative swap spreads?

The relationship between government bond yields and swap rates – otherwise known as the swap spread – has been increasingly in focus, with the market’s attention turning to Europe last week as the 10-year German Bund yield traded higher than the 10-year euro swap rate for the first time ever.
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Lower rates a bigger risk for bank equities than for bonds
13 Aug 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Lower rates a bigger risk for bank equities than for bonds

Market attention in the government bond market has rapidly turned from central banks holding rates “higher for longer” to the potential for “lower and sooner".
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This strange economic cycle is finally starting to look familiar
10 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog

This strange economic cycle is finally starting to look familiar

There is little disagreement among investors and economists that the last few years have been highly unusual in many respects. An inflationary shock in developed markets, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles on record, the worst year in decades for government bonds (2022), and mild recessions with no movement in unemployment are just a few of the dynamics that have strayed from recent norms.
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