Government Bonds

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compression or sustained rallies in government bonds appear to be limited.

As we approach the end of a year that has seen risk assets shrug off US tariffs and mounting concerns over AI-driven tech valuations, TwentyFour Asset Management’s portfolio management team selects the seven key questions that they believe will define 2026 for fixed income investors.

The wait is over. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her much anticipated November Budget on Wednesday, ending weeks of rumours and leaks that had created a general feeling that all measures were on the table – now investors, businesses and taxpayers alike can fill in the empty cells on their spreadsheets and calculate what’s left.

Economic data this week will be weird, and for central bankers it might not be wonderful. In the US, not only will we endure the aberration of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data being published on a Thursday, but we’ll also get several late macro data releases with the government shutdown put off until at least January.

The next few days could be pivotal to any concerns around the independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Despite Israel and Iran exchanging fire for a fifth day, markets seem to be completely disregarding the possibility of this conflict mutating into something serious for the global economy.

Over the last couple weeks, we have seen an ongoing increase in government bond yields across the major global economies, with a particular focus on Japan as yields on longer dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have moved sharply higher.

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.

If we look at the main drivers of returns in Q1 2025, the first one that comes to mind is tariffs. But while this is true for equities and credit spreads, in the context of global fixed income the main driver of total returns in Q1 was the Bund sell-off triggered by a momentous shift in German fiscal policy.

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Volatility in Bunds seems to have calmed down slightly in the last few days as markets continue to digest huge fiscal expansion plans from Germany and the European Union. At the same time, many forecasters have been downgrading their US growth projections after reassessing the level of pain President Trump seems willing to inflict on the US economy in order to implement his policy agenda.