New issues highlight value opportunities in fixed income
Pierre Beniguel gives his thoughts on some of the deals that have caught his eye from the reopening of the primary market after a quiet summer.
Insights Topic
TwentyFour
How UK mortgages are weathering the storm?
Pauline Quirin asks the question "How are UK mortgages weathering the storm?", exploring pre and post Global Financial Crisis mortgages and how the surge in rates has impacted the performance of UK RMBS.
Labour markets show encouraging signs of progress
Felipe Villarroel takes a look at what progress, if any, has been made in the labour market and how this resonates with the Fed's projection of labour markets easing while not experiencing a major disruption.
Poor PMI data weigh on soft landing narrative
Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views.
Will the Fed message soften at Jackson Hole?
An interesting debate, and topic that is attracting plenty of headlines given the recent volatility is where Treasury yields will ultimately settle, with a renewed focus on the neutral rate. Eoin Walsh explores the previous movements of Treasury yields and what Powell is likely to say at Jasckon Hole.
Signs of life in European CMBS
Europe recently saw the re-emergence of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (#CMBS) issuance, with Blackstone sponsored Last Mile Logistics 2023-1 deal, marking the first return since March 2022 from sponsor Blackstone and the first European CMBS issuance of any kind since last April.
Thoughts on the shape of the curve
Felipe Villarroel takes a look at how inverted government bond curves are at the moment and how previous episodes of normalisation have unwound, as curves normalised, exploring the possibilities of how the unwinding process could happen and how long it could take.
Diverging dynamics in savings ratios
As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.
Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up
Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.
BoE stress test shows resilience of the UK RMBS market
Elena Rinaldi lays out analysis from the team's recreation of the BoE's bank stress test from a mortgage default and loss point of view, applying it to a benchmark UK RMBS BBB-rated bond. Ultimately finding that this type of analysis gives us confidence that the UK RMBS market can withstand stresses beyond those applied by the BoE.
ECB's bank lending survey has something for everyone
Felipe Villarroel gives an overview of what he believes to be important features of the survey, reflecting on both the good and the bad news.
PMIs below expectations in Europe and the UK
Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.