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  • Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them
  • Should investors care about negative swap spreads?
  • Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets
  • AT1s: Deutsche Bank loses by split decision
  • The growing appeal of Significant Risk Transfer in private credit
  • European banks show no sign of funding stress in tariff sell-off
  • Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads
  • What next for European ABS post-tariffs?
  • Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?
  • The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil
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The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil
6 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil

April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. While much has been written about the geopolitical and economic implications, here we will focus on how equity, credit and rates markets have adjusted following what was a sharp sell-off and subsequent recovery.
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Was negative US growth actually negative?
1 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Was negative US growth actually negative?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis. While the headline of the US experiencing negative growth looks quite bad, the detail of the report looks much better.
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Lottomatica reopens high yield for right names
28 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Lottomatica reopens high yield for right names

The high yield bond market reopened in Europe last week after a three-week hiatus triggered by the US tariffs fallout. Aside from a private placement by Very Group on April 10, the last public European high yield deal was from UK homebuilder Miller Homes on March 31, so we were interested to see how the first post-tariffs deal would be received.
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Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position
23 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Rating upgrades highlight Europe’s improved position

With a week currently feeling like a long time in geopolitics, the European sovereign crisis at the beginning of the last decade feels even more like a distant memory. The road to recovery for Europe’s periphery economies has been long and windy, but post-Covid it has been surprisingly smooth.
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What next for European ABS post-tariffs?
22 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

What next for European ABS post-tariffs?

Markets settled down last week thanks to the absence of headlines around tariffs. There is a universal acceptance that uncertainty and volatility will remain, though a series of constructive data prints relating to inflation and labour markets have now been navigated, and investors are shifting their focus to how central banks will weigh up the growth and inflationary impact of tariffs at the next round of meetings.
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Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets
14 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Three conclusions from a chaotic week for markets

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.
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 European banks show no sign of funding stress in tariff sell-off
7 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

European banks show no sign of funding stress in tariff sell-off

With the market focus over the last week or so being firmly on equities and credit spreads, it is worth zooming in on developments in the European bank credit default swap (CDS) market.
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The growing appeal of Significant Risk Transfer in private credit
4 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

The growing appeal of Significant Risk Transfer in private credit

While much of the focus in private credit has been on direct lending, Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) is emerging as a compelling alternative. What began as a regulatory tool is now gaining traction with a growing investor base, as banks look to optimise capital and issuance reaches record highs.
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Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them
3 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.
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Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?
1 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?

If we look at the main drivers of returns in Q1 2025, the first one that comes to mind is tariffs. But while this is true for equities and credit spreads, in the context of global fixed income the main driver of total returns in Q1 was the Bund sell-off triggered by a momentous shift in German fiscal policy.
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  Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads
27 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
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AT1s: Deutsche Bank loses by split decision
21 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

AT1s: Deutsche Bank loses by split decision

Contentious call decisions from high profile issuers can provoke a fair bit of debate and emotion among participants in the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) market, and Deutsche Bank has put itself in the spotlight by announcing it will be calling only one of two AT1 bonds approaching their call dates.
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