Fixed Income

Last week marked a milestone for the structured finance industry with a record 6,003 market participants gathered in Barcelona for the 30th Global Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) conference.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis point (bp) rate hike. becoming the first major central bank in developed markets to have raised rates in response to the Iran conflict.

The Italian banking sector has kicked off the week with news of a potentially blockbuster merger, showing the theme of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in European banking is very much alive.

In 2026, we are at a crucial juncture for European CLO managers. The 2021 and 2022 vintages are reaching the end of their reinvestment period. Understanding why this is significant is vital to grasping the current state of the CLO markets.

The conflict in Iran has driven a sharp repricing at the front-end of rates markets, pushing central bank expectations from cuts to hikes in a matter of weeks. While the reaction is understandable given the inflationary impact, the scale of the move has left front-end yields on a more attractive footing.

Persistent macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and AI-driven disruption have all shaped the start of 2026. It has also marked the return of the leveraged buyout (LBO).

Credit markets have been remarkably resilient in the face of significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in recent weeks.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.

Last week, European regulators took another step in their long journey towards a single European banking regime, otherwise known as “banking union”.

European high yield (HY) credit, which had proved resilient to start 2026 despite growing concerns over AI risks, came under pressure in March as the Iran war disrupted global trade and weighed heavily on risk appetite.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

Data published by the Bank of England (BoE) on Friday shows an interesting trend in consumers’ approach to interest rates.