The TwentyFour Blog

Brexit deliberations are currently at a standstill in the UK parliament, as are negotiations with EU representatives. The next steps in the exit process are clouded in uncertainty, with numerous options on the table. In this environment, it’s no surprise that investors are still demanding a spread premium for sterling denominated credit, over and above comparable euro denominated issues.

With markets now pricing in two cuts in the Fed Funds rate this year, and a 97% chance of at least one cut, once again the FOMC members are at odds with the financial markets.

In the ABS market we often refer to the technical around supply and demand which can influence the direction of spreads as a consequence.

One of the main drivers of global markets at the moment is the exact status of the economic cycle in the United States, and on a related note, what the Federal Reserve’s next moves are likely to be. One question we are being asked more and more often by investors is whether we think a recession is coming in the US, and if so, when?

Earlier this year Santander became the first bank not to call its Additional Tier 1 (AT1 or ‘CoCo’) bonds at the first call date

Since the result of the UK referendum in June 2016 there has been a noticeable ‘Brexit-premium’ associated with most sterling denominated assets.

At the end of Q1 we were surprised by the solid pace of supply in CLOs, especially considering the challenging arbitrage dynamics facing issuers.

Last Friday’s strong US GDP reading for the first quarter has sparked several days of debate between TwentyFour portfolio managers. The 3.2% reading was 100bp ahead of consensus, so a strong beat at the headline level, but the components accounting for it, such as inventory building, suggested the figure was an aberration and likely to reverse in Q2.

Emerging Market (EM) bonds have had a good year so far. While they are not at the very top of the performance table, the hard currency CEMBI (Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index) is up 5.69% in $ since the start of the year, and the EMBI (Sovereigns) is up 6.32%; not bad at all.

The cycle of banks calling outstanding capital bonds continued this week and we’ll soon be bidding fond farewells to two of our long held and favourite positions; Nationwide’s 6.875% Additional Tier 1 (CoCo) and Barclays’ 14% hybrid Tier 1.

The Bank of England’s credit conditions survey for the first quarter of 2019 was released last Thursday, coinciding with an extended holiday period for many commentators, but certain sections made for interesting reading and are worth highlighting.

The end of 2018 and beginning of this year has been a tough time for credit, but it has also created an opportunity for CLO managers to invest in good companies at cheaper prices.