The TwentyFour Blog

An interesting debate, and topic that is attracting plenty of headlines given the recent volatility is where Treasury yields will ultimately settle, with a renewed focus on the neutral rate. Eoin Walsh explores the previous movements of Treasury yields and what Powell is likely to say at Jasckon Hole.

Europe recently saw the re-emergence of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (#CMBS) issuance, with Blackstone sponsored Last Mile Logistics 2023-1 deal, marking the first return since March 2022 from sponsor Blackstone and the first European CMBS issuance of any kind since last April.

Felipe Villarroel takes a look at how inverted government bond curves are at the moment and how previous episodes of normalisation have unwound, as curves normalised, exploring the possibilities of how the unwinding process could happen and how long it could take.

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

Elena Rinaldi lays out analysis from the team's recreation of the BoE's bank stress test from a mortgage default and loss point of view, applying it to a benchmark UK RMBS BBB-rated bond. Ultimately finding that this type of analysis gives us confidence that the UK RMBS market can withstand stresses beyond those applied by the BoE.

Felipe Villarroel gives an overview of what he believes to be important features of the survey, reflecting on both the good and the bad news.

Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.

The Bank of England has released two reports, namely the Bank of England’s UK Banking Sector Stress Test and the Credit Conditions Survey. Felipe Villarroel discusses the findings in these reports.

Following the release of the Monthly Labour Market Overview, Felipe Villarroel highlights key takeaways on the tightness of the UK’s labour market. He assesses the changes to the demand and supply of the labour force - focusing on the ‘Inactivty Rate’, “Long-Term Sick” and “Retired” categories, and migration trends - and what this means for wage inflation.